ISTANBUL, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to travel to Greece on Thursday and Friday, the historic visit is expected to serve more to foster an environment of trust rather than produce any major progress in bilateral ties, analysts told Xinhua.
VISIT NOT RESULT-ORIENTED
"The visit will be important for the two neighbors to better understand each other, but wouldn't open up new horizons," observed Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations.
Erdogan is the first Turkish head of state ever to set foot in Greece since 1952, making the visit an important though symbolical one, said Bagci who teaches at the Ankara-based Middle East Technical University.
The extradition of some Turkish officers who fled to Greece following a failed coup in Turkey last year, the problem of illegal immigration of refugees to Greece via Turkey, and a settlement of the ethnically divided Cyprus are some of the topics expected to come up during Erdogan's visit.
The rights of the Turkish and Greek minorities in the two countries and the passage of a Russian natural gas pipeline to Greece over Turkey may dominate the talks as well.
"I don't think this visit is of much importance," said Celalettin Yavuz, a security policy analyst from Istanbul Ayvansaray University.
Referring to the fact that Greece does not represent for Turkey at the moment a country that could help resolve a major foreign policy problem, he said, "I don't feel the visit is particularly focused on problem-solving."
While Turkey's ties with the United States, the European Union and some leading EU countries like Germany have been going through a stormy period for some time, Ankara is focusing much of its attention now on the developments in neighboring Syria and Iraq, where the Islamic State is being routed.
As NATO allies, Turkey and Greece had found themselves on the verge of coming to blows in the 1990s, but have focused more on improving ties through a positive agenda since Turkey's Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002.
One of Turkey's policies toward Greece is avoiding problems, since ignoring Athens may be risky for Ankara, while "Greece pursues a policy against Turkey," said Bagci.
In preparation for Erdogan's visit, Greek Foreign Minister Nicos Kocias went to the Turkish capital in October, while Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Hakan Cavusoglu, originally a member of the Turkish minority in Greece, visited Greece early last month.
The two neighbors may cooperate on economy, tourism and energy, Cavusoglu said during his visit.
For Ankara, a priority is for the Greek side to send back all those linked to the Gulen movement, a network listed by the Turkish government as a terror group, as its U.S.-based leader Fethullah Gulen is accused of masterminding a coup bid in Turkey in July last year.
Following his meeting with Kocias, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara was disappointed by Greece's failure to hand over the accused officers.
The Greek judiciary has blocked the extradition of eight Turkish officers seeking asylum in the country, arguing that they would not face a fair trial in Turkey and their lives would be at risk if they are sent back.
The ethnically divided Cyprus is another major issue between Turkey and Greece, guarantor countries respectively for the Turkish and Greek communities on the island.
Neither Bagci nor Yavuz thinks Erdogan's visit would help relaunch the reunification talks, which failed once again in the summer.
Turkey's Sabah daily reported on Sunday that Athens attaches great importance to the visit of the Turkish president, as it believes the visit may represent a turning point in bilateral ties.
According to the report, the Greek side feels the visit will be a solution-oriented step toward a settlement of differences through dialogue, good neighborliness and goodwill.
In addition, Greece is reportedly expecting to increase economic cooperation with Turkey through Erdogan's trip by means of joint investments in the fields of energy and transportation.
Russia is building a pipeline under the Black Sea to send natural gas to Turkey and Europe, which may go through Greece if Athens opts to join the gas deal with Russia.
The flow of illegal immigrants from Turkey to Greece via the Aegean is widely expected to be a topic in Erdogan's talks with Greek leaders.
Turkey has managed to reduce to a great extent the number of illegal immigrants traveling to Greece thanks to strict controls on its Aegean shores enforced since last year following a deal with the EU.
"Turkey and Greece are the two countries most negatively affected by the migrants," Bagci said. "So Greece would not like to have tension with Ankara."
SOURCES OF DISPUTE
A column posted on Monday at greekreporter.com noted that Athens does not know what to expect from Erdogan's visit, leading to ambivalence reigning on the Greek side.
Erdogan may be hoping to mend Turkey's weakened prestige in the eyes of the EU by his visit, said Yavuz, a former staff officer in the Turkish Navy.
Turkey's accession talks with the 28-nation bloc, of which Greece is a member, have long been stalled, as Ankara has been accused of drifting away from democracy in recent years.
Despite lingering problems with Turkey on several fronts, Greece supports its neighbor's bid for a full EU membership.
"Turkey is in a difficult position in the international arena and may seek to soften its relations with the West through Greece," said Hasan Koni, a professor of public international law with Istanbul Kultur University.
Territorial waters in the Aegean, disputed islands and islets, and militarization of the Greek islands near Turkey are sources of dispute between the two neighbors, but the analysts do not expect such thorny issues to come up in the talks.
As a result of disagreements regarding territorial waters, Greece has often accused Turkish jets of violating its air space over the Aegean.
During the visit of his Greek counterpart to Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said the two countries agreed to continue their exploratory talks on the issue to avoid tension in the Aegean.
Ankara and Athens are scheduled to hold their fifth meeting of a high-level cooperation council in February in Greece's Thessaloniki.
The introduction of ferry lines between Thessaloniki and Izmir in Turkey and the construction of a high-speed rail over the border in Thrace between Istanbul and Thessaloniki as well as a bridge at the frontier in Ipsala are among the major topics to be discussed at the February meeting, said Deputy PM Cavusoglu.
During his stay in Greece, Erdogan is expected to travel to the Turkish community in Thrace in the country's northeast.
The Turkish minority in Thrace and the Greek minority in Turkey are a source of dispute between the two countries, although some of the problems have been resolved in recent years.
Meanwhile, Athens is not pleased at all with Ankara's labeling of its Muslim community as Turkish community.
The Greeks feel disturbed whenever Turkish politicians address the Turkish minority in Thrace during their visits as if they were political leaders of the Turkish minority.
The greekreporter.com article wrote about the displeasure, demanding that "will the Turkish president speak to them as if he is their leader, after Cavusoglu's promise that Turkey will never forget about them?"
In recent years, the Turkish Cabinet has opted to have a member from the Turkish minority in Thrace, just like Deputy PM Cavusoglu.
"The Greeks are displeased with this habit of the Turkish government, but this is a good tactic for Turkey," remarked Bagci.
The Greek Cabinet, for its part, has currently a minister, Kostas Gavroglu, who was a member of the Greek minority in Istanbul.
Another source of dispute between Turkey and Greece is the exploration of natural gas around Cyprus by the Greek Cypriot government, which only represents the Greeks on the island.
Turkey opposes the Greek side's search for gas, arguing that Turkish Cypriots should have a share as well in the gas to be drilled.
