ISTANBUL, Nov. 30 (Xinhua) -- As the outline of a post-conflict Syria becomes clearer following last week's Sochi deal, Turkey's hopes of blocking a Kurdish autonomous region and removing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power have dimmed, analysts told Xinhua.
KURDISH AUTONOMY NOT EASY TO RESIST
The United States should be expected to push for an autonomous Kurdish region while Russia would not oppose it, said Cahit Armagan Dilek, director of the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute.
When they met last week in the Russian resort of Sochi in a bid to find a political settlement of the six-year Syrian war, the Russian, Turkish and Iranian presidents agreed to bring together the warring parties for a Syrian Congress on National Dialogue most probably in February.
"In the light of the recent developments after the (failure of the) Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq, the Syrian Kurds are likely to opt for a federal arrangement, at least initially," observed Faruk Logoglu, a former senior Turkish diplomat.
Turkey strongly opposes the involvement of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), in the upcoming peace talks, as Ankara sees them as simply the offshoots of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) which has been fighting against the Turkish government for over 30 years.
In contrast, Russia and the United States favor the Kurdish militia's presence at the upcoming Syrian congress to make it as inclusive as possible.
Despite Ankara's outcry, Washington has used the YPG as a ground force against the Islamic State (IS). And thanks to U.S. military support, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) dominated by the YPG have established three autonomous cantons in northern Syria along the Turkish border.
Syria will no longer be a unitary state even if it keeps its territorial integrity, Ozturk Yilmaz, a leading figure of Turkey's main opposition party, said at a press conference on Monday.
In his view, Syria's social unity has been almost irrevocably damaged in the war.
All the countries involved in the political process for Syria have voiced their support for its territorial integrity, which does not rule out a federal structure.
The areas captured by the U.S.-backed Kurdish militia are a major concern for Ankara, as they have the potential to become an autonomous region for the Kurds, which Turkey fears may set a precedent for its own nearly 20 million Kurds.
Turkey also argues that the YPG does not represent all Syrian Kurds, accusing it of having ethnically cleansed the areas under its control.
It is often suggested that representatives of the Kurdish militia may well be included in talks under a different name or have separate talks due to Ankara's opposition.
"Given the likelihood of the PYD participation in the peace process, Ankara will be faced with the necessity to make additional changes in its Syria stance, if it wants to avoid further marginalization," said Logoglu.
Following the Sochi summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again underlined that no terrorist organizations should be allowed a part in the Syrian political process.
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that the proposed congress on dialogue must bring together representatives of all the different ethnic groups.
The congress is aimed, in parallel with the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, at drawing up a new constitution for Syria and organizing elections under the auspices of the world body.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that the upcoming congress should be as inclusive as possible, strongly implying the PYD's direct or indirect involvement.
"Russia does not want to leave the Kurdish card to the U.S. hand in Syria," Dilek said, arguing that as a federal state itself, Russia would not see federalism as a defect.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said in September that Kurdish autonomy was negotiable for his government.
"Damascus may well resist delegating some of its powers to autonomous regions, but the political and military environment shows that is difficult to achieve," remarked Dilek, a former staff of the Turkish military.
In Sochi, Putin stressed that the reform process would require concessions from all parties including the Syrian government.
As long as Assad agrees the autonomy of the Kurds, Ankara has no chance of blocking it, said Hasan Koni, a professor of public international law at Istanbul Kultur University.
The Kurdish militia has control over an estimated 30 percent of the Syrian territory as well as the country's major oil and water resources.
The United States is building its 14th military base in the Kurdish-controlled territory, said Erdogan last week.
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has spoken of Washington's intention to stay in Syria before the conditions for a diplomatic solution are set.
Dilek feels that the eastern part of the Euphrates River, where two of the Kurdish cantons are situated, has been put under U.S. sphere of influence, while the rest of Syria would be left to Russia based on a larger consensus on Iraq and Syria between the two superpowers.
A federal Syria is what Moscow and Washington have in mind, Dilek said.
AFRIN OPERATION FACING HEADWIND
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party has been much criticized at home for having been part of early efforts to topple the Syrian government, risking the disintegration of the country itself in the end.
After mending ties with Russia last summer, Ankara has given up trying to oust the Assad government, but has kept saying he must leave.
Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told the press on Tuesday that Assad might be allowed to remain in power during a transition period, signaling a softening stance of Turkey following the Sochi summit.
Blaming Assad for Syria's years-long war, Yildirim once again said, "Assad would have no future in Syria."
Many believe, however, that given Syrian military's victory over rebels and the Russian support, the Syrian president may well stay long.
"Turkey's Syrian policy is now in retreat, having had to abandon its original objective of removing Assad from power," stated Lologlu.
In Dilek's opinion, Turkey's earlier policy of trying to remove the Syrian president by supporting rebels has proved to be a total failure.
Given the situation on the ground, the analysts think Ankara may well have to give up military intervention against the Kurdish militia in Afrin.
"It has now become almost impossible for Turkey to carry out a military operation against YPG-held areas," said Dilek.
"At a time when the armed conflict is receding, any unilateral military operation by Turkey is therefore likely to draw stiff reaction from both Russia and the United States," warned Logoglu, as Putin and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump have ruled out any military solution in Syria following brief talks in Vietnam on Nov. 11.
Top Turkish officials have now and then threatened a military operation against Afrin, the only Kurdish canton on the west side of the Euphrates River.
Under a deal reached by Moscow, Ankara and Tehran in Kazakhstan's Astana in September, Turkey sent troops to Syria's Idlib province last month to monitor truce between rebel groups and the Syrian military.
Turkey's top security body, the National Security Council, signaled on Tuesday that Ankara may consider expanding its operations for peace in Idlib to Afrin.
Both Russia, which has a military presence in Afrin, and the United States have indicated their opposition to such an intervention against Afrin.
Dilek warned of a big price for Turkey if it pushes ahead with a unilateral operation against Afrin without first seeking political support from the major powers.
