Shambaugh China essay in shambles

In the 1990s,some American scholars and journalists indulged themselves in forecasting a China collapse into several republics,like the Soviet Union.Some based their arguments on the growing regionalism in the country,others bet on the passing away of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.

To their disappointment,China has not disintegrated into six or seven republics.Instead it has become the world's second-largest economy and it is well on its way to being No 1.

Yet the rise of China has not discouraged some in the United States from continuing to fantasize about the breakup of China.

In his Wall Street Journal article"The Coming Chinese Crackup"on March 7,David Shambaugh,a China scholar at George Washington University,pronounced that the"endgame of Communist rule"in China has begun.But his article is based on some random and superficial facts,and his arguments can best be summarized as yipiangaiquan,(hasty generalization),or the English idiom-One swallow does not make a summer.

Shambaugh is right that no campaign can eliminate the problem of corruption.But no one should be so naive as to believe that corruption can be completely uprooted,either in China or in the US,where President Barack Obama has repeatedly complained about money in politics.

Shambaugh's deep flaw is that he looked at China with a bias,completely ignoring the positive aspects.

For example,the anti-corruption campaign launched by President Xi Jinping has raised hope for many Chinese that the thorny issue is being tackled.The campaign has been popular both at home and abroad,including winning support from senior Obama administration officials and many China scholars in Washington.In the past days,US scholars,both on the right and left,have questioned Shambaugh's logic.

I believe Xi and many Chinese know that fighting the war on corruption is really hard.Yet Shambaugh seems to suggest that doing nothing is probably a better way forward.

Shambaugh asserted that China's economic elite have one foot out of the door,and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble.Many entrepreneurs have been investing overseas.But this should be seen as a good sign of Chinese companies increasingly integrating into the global economy.Isn't wooing foreign direct investment into the US what Obama hopes for when he speaks later this month at the Select USA Summit.It does not make sense to assume that businesspeople,whether Chinese or American,will abandon the market of 1.37 billion people.And even the number Shambaugh proposed accounts for only a fraction of a nation with nearly a fifth of humanity.

Shambaugh,who is not an economist,sounded extremely pessimistic about the Chinese economic reform.That contrasts sharply to the wide applause China's Third Plenum reform program,unveiled in November 2013,has received in the US,from both US officials and economists.

The new normal of China's economic growth is rational:China is determined to accept slower growth to move up the supply chain and achieve sustainable growth.

Shambaugh even interpreted Chinese parents sending children to study abroad as a sign of the vulnerability of the system,rather than a positive outcome of a growing middle class who can afford doing things unimaginable in the past.Would he make the same argument for India,South Korea,Saudi Arabia and Canada,which follow China as the top sources for international students in the US?

In his haste,Shambaugh even cited the crackdown on Chinese"birth tourism"in Los Angeles a week ago as a major vulnerability of the Communist Party of China.Using the same logic,he might predict the demise of Mexico when many of their citizens cross the border illegally into the US.

If Shambaugh is to be regarded a serious scholar,he has certainly not shown it in his latest article.

    沈大伟混乱的中国论文

    早在1990年代，一些美国的学者和记者就沉迷于预测中国会像前苏联一样崩溃而分裂成几个国家。中国出现的一些地方主义和国家领导人邓小平的去世都成为他们得出这样预测的重要依据。

    让他们失望的是中国非但没有分崩离析成为六个或七个共和国，反而却成了世界第二大经济体，而且稳步向世界第一迈进。

    不过中国的崛起并没有让美国的一些人死心，他们继续幻想着中国将要分裂。

    在3月7日华尔街日报上，乔治·华盛顿大学中国问题学者沈大伟（David Shambaugh）的“中国即将分崩离析”一文预言中国已进入“共产党统治的残局”阶段。然而他这个结论却是基于一些随意和肤浅的事实，所以这样的论断最多也只能说是以偏概全，用英语谚语来说，就是见到一只燕子并不能说夏天已来临。

    沈大伟正确的地方是他说任何运动都不能根本铲除腐败。事实是并没有人天真认为腐败是可以完全被铲除的，无论是在中国还是美国。美国总统奥巴马也多次控诉金钱在干涉美国政治。

    沈大伟重大失误就在于他带着偏见看待中国，完全无视积极正面的因素。

    比如说，习近平主席的反腐运动让很多中国人对解决这个棘手问题产生了期盼。而该运动在国内外广受欢迎，得到了包括奥巴马政府高级官员和华盛顿众多研究中国的学者的支持。就在过去的一些日子，美国无论是左派还是右派的学者都对沈大伟的逻辑提出了质疑。

    我深信习主席和很多中国人都明白反腐斗争的艰巨性。然而沈大伟却似乎认为无所作为反而会是最好的选择。

    沈大伟断言中国经济界精英一只脚已跨出国门，并且在中国体制垮台时会蜂拥逃离中国。确实很多企业家在海外投资，但这应该被视作中国公司在不断融入全球经济的好现象。难道奥巴马本月下旬在“选择美国投资峰会”上不就是希望吸引外国直接投资吗？任何人以为中国或美国商人会抛弃13.7亿人的市场都是没有道理的。而沈大伟引用的数字与占世界五分之一的中国人口相比都是微小的。

    沈大伟并不是经济学家，但他对中国经济改革却表现出极度悲观。与此形成极度反差的是美国官员和美国经济学家对中国2013年11月三中全会公布的改革方案都表示了广泛的支持。

    中国经济改革的新常态是理性的决定。中国下决心接受经济增长速度放缓这一事实，从而可以使中国经济在全球供应链上更上一层楼，并使经济持续发展。

    沈大伟甚至把中国家长送孩子到国外读书解读为中国体制脆弱的表现，而不去把这解读为中国日益增长的中产阶级有钱可以做以前不可想象的事情的正面现象。沈大伟是否会对印度、韩国、沙特和加拿大做出同样的推断呢？这些国家紧跟中国，也是美国国际学生的最主要来源国。

    沈大伟的草率还在于他把一周前洛杉矶当局对中国人“生育旅游”窝点的冲击解读为中共的致命落点。用他的逻辑，难道沈大伟会预言墨西哥会因很多国民偷渡到美国也将崩溃？

    如果沈大伟被认为是一位严肃的学者，那他绝对没有在最近文章中得到体现。