|
BEIJING, Nov. 4 (Xinhua) -- A senior economist said Friday that a slowdown in China's economic growth did not mean the world's second largest economy would have a hard landing.
Yao Jingyuan, the former chief economist with the National Bureau of Statistics, said the economy will most likely expand more than 9 percent this year.
China's economic growth was 9.1 percent in the third quarter, 9.5 percent in the second, and 9.7 percent in the first.
While exports grew 20.5 percent in the third quarter, 22.1 percent in the second, and 22.5 percent in the first. In September, exports only grew 17.1 percent year on year.
"These figures suggest a downward trend for the nation's economic growth, but I don't think the economy is heading for a hard landing," Yao said.
He said the slowdown was a result of the nation's active macro-economic control polices, which have prioritized inflation control and highlighted the importance of domestic consumption and economic restructuring.
Yao said the "pace" of economic growth isn't the main focus of government policy at present.
He said China must step up economic restructuring and change the modes of its economic growth model.
According to central bank adviser Li Daokui, over the past 10 years, China's local governments had overly relied on land sales and property development to boost economic growth. However, this was not sustainable as not enough resources remained unconsumed for future growth.
Li said that the environment used to be relatively loose for China's exports -- regarded as one of the three major drivers of growth. But the government has been stressing the role of domestic consumption to support growth as over-reliance on exports is risky.
Meanwhile, both internal and external factors are impacting on exports. According to Yao, domestic production costs were increasing on the back of rising labor and raw materials costs. Meanwhile, China faces daunting pressure exerted by some countries to let its currency rise.
The yuan has appreciated by more than 30 percent against the U.S. dollar since July 2005 when the country scrapped the yuan's peg to the greenback and adopted a managed-floating currency system.
Government data shows China's trade surplus shrank by 10.6 percent to 107.1 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months. Li estimated the trade surplus would further narrow next year.
Regarding inflation, Li said he expects the consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, to fall to 2.8 percent next year as he believes food prices, which account for about one third of the weighting in CPI calculation, will significantly ease.
Premier Wen Jiabao said late last month that the country will fine-tune its macro control policies when the time is right. The downward forecast for inflation could further trigger speculation of a selective easing of the nation's credit-tightening measures.
Related:
Economy remains sound despite non-manufacturing PMI drops in Oct.
BEIJING, Nov. 3 (Xinhua) -- Although the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturing sector dropped slightly in October, analyst said Thursday that the sector is still expanding steadily.
The non-manufacturing sector's PMI, a key economic indicator, fell to 57.7 percent in October from 59.3 percent a month earlier, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said Thursday. Full story
China's non-manufacturing sector growth slows in Oct.
BEIJING, Nov. 3 (Xinhua) -- The growth of China's non-manufacturing sector slowed in October, as indicated by a decline in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said Thursday.
The non-manufacturing sector's PMI, a key economic indicator, fell to 57.7 percent in October from 59.3 percent a month earlier, the CFLP said. Full story
Is monetary loosening underway in China?
BEIJING, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- As investors speculate policy change over recent government moves, analysts say China is poised to selectively ease its tightening policies, and a full swing of monetary change seems unlikely in the short run.
With both the economy and inflation cooling, the government recently mulled monetary and fiscal measures to unfreeze credit and relieve tax loads for small enterprises, which are deemed as signs of monetary loosening. Full story
|
