by Adam Gonn
JERUSALEM, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- Israeli security forces arrested five Palestinians over the weekend in connection to the murder of an Israeli reserve officer in the Jordan Valley last week.
The attack, which hasn't been classified as a terror attack, was the third one over the past two months in which Israelis were killed. Besides this officer, two soldiers were killed in separate incidents in September. In October, a nine-year-girl was shot and wounded outside her home in settlement of Psagot.
While attacks on Israelis in the West Bank aren't unheard of, the frequency of the latest attacks have led to speculation that maybe the eight years of quiet, which came with the end of the second intifada or Palestinian uprising in 2005, might be coming to a close.
However, analysts told Xinhua that there are no signs that the attacks were coordinated and that many of the preconditions and motivations that led to the first and second intifadas are not in place today.
"I don't think it's the beginning of a third intifada," Shlomo Brom, a senior research at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Xinhua on Sunday.
"A third intifada can be the result of two parameters, one parameter the general mood of the Palestinian public and the other parameter is the policies of political movements and organizations, " Brom said.
He explained that when he views these two parameters he doesn't believe that the general mood in the West Bank supports an outbreak of a third intifada.
Similarly, when Brom views the policy of the main political movements, Fatah and Hamas, he believes there are no indications that they want to start a third intifada, adding it doesn't serve their interests at this stage.
Dr. Ely Karmon of the Interdisciplinary-Center in Herzliya said, "At the moment it's clear that three or four assassinations and attempted assassinations aren't connected and, according to most signs, the people that were responsible for them weren't active members in a clearly established network of a terrorist organization."
"Even though there are four or five cases in one month I don't think it's a sign of a new intifada because the intifadas, especially the second intifada, were planned and organized," Karmon said.
"In the case of the second intifada it was organized by the Palestinian Authority and Yassir Arafat personally. The first intifada there was a spontaneous uprising but quite quickly Fatah and Hamas took advantage of the opportunity," Karmon added.
Brom argued that what is happening now is a kind of mixture of criminal events, Israel has the tendency whenever a Palestinian is murdering an Israeli to link it to nationalistic reasons, but sometimes it's because criminal reasons. For example, the case when the child was wounded in the West Bank it looks more and more like a criminal case, namely that this was someone who meant to break into the house but something went wrong in the process.
However, he noted that individual Palestinians could very well be influenced by the tumultuous regional climate and try ignite a spark that in their mind would led to changes in Israel and the West Bank similar to what happened in Tunis, Syria or Egypt.