By Xinhua writer Ran Wei
WASHINGTON, Dec. 20 (Xinhua) -- After taking office in 2009, U. S. President Barack Obama vowed to pivot his administration's foreign policy focus from the Middle East to Asia. In the span of almost four years, the pivoting has been underscored by Washington ' s high-profile activities in Asia and deep involvement in regional affairs.
However, with numerous crises still boiling in the Middle East, such as Iran's nuclear standoff, Syria's civil war, political upheavals in Egypt, escalating Palestinian-Israeli tensions, and so on, analysts argue that troubles in that volatile region are hampering Obama's ability to pivot to Asia.
ASIA AS THE PIVOT?
During the Bush administration, the United States was bogged down with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which consumed much of its strategic resources. As a result, Washington has somewhat ignored Asia. But as the region has been increasingly reshaping global dynamics, America's political elite decided to pivot to Asia in order to maintain its predominant role amid the shifting of global geopolitical and economic gravity center.
During his first presidential term, Obama, along with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, made frequent and high-profile appearances in the Asia-Pacific. He set Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia as destinations for his first foreign travel after winning re-election in November, a move widely interpreted as a firm bid to showcase his commitment to the "pivot-to-Asia" strategy.
However, since the unveiling of Obama's Asia policy, its phrasing has evolved from the earliest "back-to-Asia," and then to "pivot-to-Asia" and to the latest "re-balancing-in-Asia," the change of which, in the eyes of many, has reflected an internal policy adjustment.
DRAG FROM THE MIDEAST
Now, many analysts doubt whether Washington has sufficient strategic resources to implement its so-called "pivoting" or "re- balancing," given the enormous upheavals in the Middle East, and the pressing need for widespread spending cuts, even in U.S. defense and diplomatic operations. Some critics bluntly point out that rhetoric outweighs substance in the "pivot-to-Asia" strategy.
Admittedly, the Obama administration has shown a declining interest in Middle East affairs, compared to its diplomatic fanfare in the Asia-Pacific. However, the reality of a turbulent Middle East keeps on preventing Obama from pivoting away.
"The irony, of course, is that every time the Obama administration tries to turn toward Asia, the Middle East drags it back," Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, commented in a recent article.
As a case in point, in order to avert an all-out war between Palestine's Hamas and Israel, Obama urgently dispatched Clinton after the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, to the Middle East for mediation.
"Thank goodness, President Barack Obama overcame his pivot penchant to Asia and has sent Secretary of State Hillary Clinton back to the Middle East. Her arrival can come none too soon," Brookings' Vice President Martin Indyk, who served as the two-time former U.S. ambassador to Israel, wrote immediately after the diplomatic move.
In the end, under influences from Washington and Cairo, Hamas and Israel grudgingly reached a cease-fire and hence averted a full-scale war.
FLARING HOT SPOTS
But troubles in the region go way beyond the rockets launched from Gaza. In the case of Iran, despite the crippling sanctions imposed by the Obama administration, no breakthrough has been achieved in solving the nuclear stalemate. With fundamental differences remaining between Iran and the United States, plus an Israel that is prone to launch unilateral attacks, to settle the crisis through diplomacy is still by no means guaranteed.
Many experts, including Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, see Iran as potentially the biggest headache for Obama's foreign policy team in the next four years.
"I think priority number one is Iran and figuring out how to avoid a conflict. The potential of a conflict with Iran is still high," O'Hanlon told Xinhua.
In Egypt, a major Arab power in the Middle East, serious political infighting among the Muslim Brotherhood, secular forces and supporters of former President Hosni Mubarak continues to escalate. Observers say that the scope and scale of the ongoing crisis, ignited by the controversial constitutional declaration issued by President Mohamed Morsi and the constitution drafting, has been unprecedented since the fall of the former regime.
"Egypt's unbelievably complex political evolution will continue to play out in 2013," said Jessica Tuchman, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Unlike the end of Soviet rule in Eastern Europe, these are genuine internal revolutions that will take decades to play out."
Not far away from Egypt, there is still no end in sight to a civil war that has killed over 40,000 people in Syria, as conflicts between Syria's government forces and rebels are heightening. Located at a key geopolitical juncture in the Middle East, Syria has historically been a focal point of struggles among global and regional powers.
There is no way that the United States would sit on the sidelines. Urging unity of the Syrian opposition, strengthening support to the rebels, deploying Patriot Missiles along the Turkish border, drawing redlines on chemical weapons, and dispatching Eisenhower aircraft carrier offshore Syria, and etc., Washington is taking a wide array of measures to ensure that the country is on a trajectory that works best for U.S. strategic interests.
A REGION AT THE CROSSROADS
With its grand Middle East strategy installed for decades, the United States has been interfering with regional affairs in wide- ranging ways, including directly launching large-scale ground wars. However, the political landscape in the region has not evolved according to the roadmap outlined by Washington. Unlike what the West had expected, widespread political upheavals in the Middle East starting from last year have not led to a swift change and resolution. On the contrary, the surge of Islamic forces in the Arab world has increasingly worried U.S. policy-makers about the direction the region is heading for.
A turbulent Middle East is posing urgent and multifaceted challenges to the United States. The list runs long: preventing Iran from getting a nuclear bomb while avoiding being dragged into another costly war, de-escalating tensions between Palestine and Israel, managing the growing Islamic influence in countries like Egypt, effectively swaying Syria's future, among others.
To be certain, the United States cannot afford the potential price for ignoring those challenges. For decades, from the Islamic Revolution in Iran, to the pricey war in Iraq, to the most recent death of the U.S. ambassador in Benghazi, Libya, Washington knows better than anyone else that any lack of attention or mishandling of policies on the Middle East affairs will immediately draw serious backfires.
These daunting challenges serve well as a grim reminder for Obama. The president will need to "pivot back to the Middle East once more, before he heads off to Asia again," said Indyk.
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