by Fuad Rajeh
SANAA, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Hopes were raised in Yemen as a historic reconciliation dialogue came to an end at the beginning of this year, almost three years after political upheaval devastated the poor Arab country.
However, prospect of reconciliation was marred by violence in the country that has seen a bitter power struggle since September when the Shiite Houthi group took over the capital Sanaa by force.
The Houthi militant group has since tightened its grip on power through seizing public compounds in Sanaa, as well as naming senior officials including governors of other cities.
The power struggle has weakened the government and resulted in its inability to conduct key reforms such as restructuring the national forces, achieving a robust economic growth and disarming militant groups.
Meanwhile, increasing foreign meddling, collusion of senior military commanders and ineffective international response to the threats to the transition process have led to turmoil, according to observers.
Najeeb Ghalab, a professor of politics at Sanaa University and also executive director of the Al-Jazeerah studies center, said the collusion and conspiracy of senior military and non-military officials was behind the fall of the authorities.
"We continued to hear the former defense minister talking about the vigilance of the armed forces, but suddenly, the capital fell just simply like it happened, without any action from the army," Ghalab said.
For many inside and outside Yemen, foreign countries, including some of those providing direct support to the transition process, have not only been meddling but also colluding.
DERAILED TRANSITION
In January, Yemeni factions concluded a ten-month national dialogue conference which was hailed as a stride on the road to a better Yemen.
However, political factions started to engage in power struggle since then. The Houthi group has fought with Sunni tribes and the army in northern regions, seizing several governorates since July, including the capital Sanaa. It continued to expand influence until its supporters staged protests in August against reforms on which the government insisted as necessary to avoid an economic collapse.
The protests forced a partial reshuffle of the government and then a peace and national partnership agreement in September. The deal paved the way for an immediate Houthi takeover of power.
Fuad Alsalahi, a professor of political sociology at Sanaa University, said the takeover of power by militia should be blamed on the failure of political partners to establish a real reconciliation which was supposed to resolve national issues fairly and constructively.
"The failure of parties in turn should be blamed first on increasing foreign meddling through powerful proxies, inducing some of political partners as well as continued absence of suitable visions of concrete power transition," Alsalahi added.
Officials and analysts said militia added to security challenges and deepened political instability.
Security concerns and political unrest have further affected the country's economy this year, as repeated attacks on energy and power infrastructures resulted in a sharp drop in crude oil production, exports and revenue.
Lately, the World Bank said that the poverty and unemployment rates in Yemen have increased to more than 50 percent since 2011, and that half of Yemen's population lives under the poverty line.
Earlier, the United Nations warned that the humanitarian situation and conflicts are affecting the transition process in Yemen.
FURTHER CHAOS
The latest developments remain a sign of further chaos and uncertainty in the future, especially after some political parties rejected key consensual outcomes of the national dialogue conference.
The Houthi takeover has started to fuel tensions in the south where protests have been escalating to demand separation.
People in Aden city, the capital of the former south Yemen state, said the situation in the north has boosted their right of independence.
At the same time, rejection of militia is growing in many other governorates, which observers said will lead to inevitable conflicts.
"In such a situation, conflicts and separation will prevail," said Anis Mansour, an Aden-based political analyst and writer. He believed that the armed forces will further divide and try to revolt against any efforts to build them better in a bid to further enable Houthi militants to tighten the grip on power.
Nabil Albukiri, head of the Arab center for political studies and development, said the future is worrying, as "Houthis imposed a reality which contradicts with the reconciliation dialogue and other consensual agreements."
Away from its slogans, the heavily armed Houthi group cannot oversee the transition implementation, Albukiri said.
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