by Lu Jiafei, Qiu Xia
BEIJING, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) -- A serious analysis of the current standoff over the Ukraine crisis reveals a stark reality worse than people are willing to admit. As the simmering conflicts in Ukraine continue to take lives and exacerbate the already precarious humanitarian conditions in the country's eastern regions, the world is in urgent need of a solution.
Historically speaking, Ukraine and Russia share much of their history, as the modern peoples of Russia and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus', a federation of East Slavic tribes in Europe from the late 9th to the mid-13th century, as their cultural ancestors.
However, after hundreds of years of historical bonding with Russia, Ukraine now finds itself entangled in a knot of regional and global interests.
FAULT LINE WITHIN UKRAINE
For months, conflicts between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian forces have been raging on in two eastern regions of Ukraine, despite a fragile ceasefire agreed by both sides. At least 4,707 people have been killed and 10,322 wounded since mid-April, according to the latest data by the United Nations.
Begun with massive street protests to back the country's European integration in November, 2013, the crisis evolved into a government breakdown in February, as the elected President Viktor Yanukovych was removed from office by a parliament controlled by West-leaning opposition which favored integration with the EU instead of closer ties with Russia.
Tensions in Ukraine turned white-hot when a referendum was held in the country's autonomous region of Crimea in mid-March, in which the majority of the region's people voted to join Russia.
By mid-April, hostilities flared in eastern Ukraine as at least five other cities in the region were targeted by uprisings and the violent takeover of government buildings by independence-seeking rebels.
In September, a ceasefire agreement was reached by both sides in Belarussian capital of Minsk. However, a UN report said that at least 1,357 fatalities have been recorded in Ukraine's eastern regions since the ceasefire was declared.
RISK OF A NEW COLD WAR
Although the prevailing wisdom in the West lays the blame of the Ukraine crisis entirely on Russia, John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, said the United States and its European allies shared most of the responsibility for the crisis.
According to Mearsheimer, the root causes of the crisis are America-led NATO enlargement and the eastward expansion of the European Union (EU), the central elements of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia's orbit and integrate it into the West.
In his book The Grand Chessboard, published right after the end of the Cold War, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski argued that the United States had to control a number of strategic countries, including Ukraine.
The importance of Ukraine, Brzezinski said, is its very existence as a geopolitical pivot on the Eurasian chessboard, which can "stop Russia becoming a Eurasian empire."
Zhang Hong, an expert on Eurasian studies from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), told Xinhua that the end of the Cold War more than two decades ago did not mean the West was ready to embrace Russia anytime soon.
On the contrary, in the face of the dual clamping mechanism of Europe-based missile defence system promoted by America, and NATO enlargement as well as the EU expansion, the Kremlin felt threatened geopolitically, said Zhang.
This remark was echoed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his speech after Crimea joined Russia. Accusing the military bloc NATO of seeking to squeeze Russia out of its historic security region in the Black Sea, Putin said Moscow would take steps in response "when the infrastructure of a military bloc is moving toward our borders."
In the same speech, Putin also said Russia's decision to adopt Crimea was partly due to concerns that if the Kremlin did nothing, NATO would further move eastward to incorporate Ukraine.
POTENTIAL WAY OUT
For months after Crimea's affiliation to Russia and what they claimed as Russian military intervention in Ukraine, America and EU have enacted several packages of economic sanctions against Russia in tandem.
Expanded economic sanctions have taken toll on the Russian economy, with its currency depreciating to a record low on Tuesday. Worse, the measures are interpreted by the Kremlin as politically hostile towards Russia, which further complicated the Ukraine crisis.
Tensions between Russia and America intensified after U.S. lawmakers last week passed a bill titled The Ukraine Freedom Support Act which aimed to provide lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine and impose additional sanctions against Russia.
Branding new U.S. sanctions as hostile towards Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday in an interview that Moscow had the right to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea according to "its interests and its international responsibilities" after Crimea became part of Russia.
Given the complex historical factors and the current circumstances behind the crisis, analysts dialogues and compromises between Russia and the West as well as the warring parties in the country are the only viable solution to the crisis. Military actions and economic sanctions have failed to or will never yield any positive results.
Li Zhonghai, chief editor of The Studies on Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia by CASS, told Xinhua that without a balanced approach to the crisis, which takes into account the interests of all sides concerned, Ukraine would stay stuck in its struggle to adjust its relations with major countries.
A chronic crisis in Ukraine might grow into a trigger for a new Cold War, Li warned.
