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Yuan may end one-sided appreciation: experts

English.news.cn   2014-02-22 18:56:52

BEIJING, Feb. 22 (Xinhua) -- One-sided appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar might end if this week's four-day decline continues.

The value of the yuan has fallen against the greenback for four days in a row, weakening 123 basis points in total. The yuan has dropped by more than 200 basis points this year.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Bank, said expectations for yuan appreciation might be changed if the trend continues.

Yuan has risen to 6.1176 against the U.S. dollar from 8.11 in July 2005 when China reformed the exchange rate mechanism. Appreciation quickened in 2013 and its value rose 3 percent, compared with 0.25 percent in 2012.

Concerned about economic slowdown, big banks have been buying foreign exchange, but Lu also attributes yuan weakening to the global foreign exchange market where currencies of most emerging economies are depreciating, mostly as a result of QE tapering.

"The recent large-scale depreciation of emerging economies' currencies has widened exchange rate gaps between the yuan and other currencies, leading to expectations of yuan depreciation," said Lu.

"In this sense, decline of the yuan could have been anticipated," Lu added.

The shattering of appreciation expectations for the yuan should come as good news to China's exporters, said Lu Lei, head of the Guangdong University of Finance.

Lu suggested companies learn more about exchange rate hedging and reduce risk through financial products.

The impact on the other emerging economies should be temporary, Lu said.

"In the long run, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy and the real purchase power of the Renminbi will be the decisive factors for the currency's exchange rate," he added.

Editor: Fu Peng
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