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Merrill Lynch raises China GDP growth forecast

English.news.cn   2013-12-14 13:09:04            

BEIJING, Dec. 14 (Xinhua) -- Based on China's macroeconomic data for November, Bank of America (BOA) Merrill Lynch has raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 7.8 percent from its previous 7.7 percent.

China's November activity data came in with faster retail sales growth, slower fixed asset investment growth and softer industrial production growth.

The moderation of industrial production growth to 10 percent in November, from 10.3 percent in October, "was mainly a result of a high comparison base thanks to the strong rebound at the end of 2012", said BOA Merrill Lynch's chief China economist Lu Ting in the financial institution's latest report, released on Thursday.

For the full year of 2013, BOA Merrill Lynch maintained its GDP growth forecast for China at 7.7 percent.

With the current momentum, year-on-year GDP growth could rise to 8 percent in the first and second quarters of 2014, thanks to a fall in comparison base, according to the report.

The institution also said it expects the Chinese government to set its 2014 full-year growth target at 7.5 percent, the same as that for 2013, for three reasons.

Firstly, a growth of 7.5 percent is reachable given current domestic demand momentum and global prospects.

Secondly, Chinese leaders believe that some of their scheduled reforms could support growth if they help improve efficiency.

Thirdly, the Chinese government cut its growth target to 7.5 percent in 2012 from an 8-percent target in 2005-2011, and will be wary of cutting again for 2014 as people might lose confidence, said the report.

China's economic growth accelerated to 7.8 percent in the third quarter of 2013. It picked up from 7.5 percent in the second and 7.7 percent in the first quarter.

China's National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release China's fourth-quarter and 2013 full-year GDP growth rates in mid-January.

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China shifts from GDP primacy to quality growth

BEIJING, Dec. 12 (Xinhua) -- China is shifting away from its GDP-focused growth model to one that pays more attention to growth quality, overseas experts said.

A wide and comprehensive adjustment in domestic governance is taking place in this ancient country, said Kenneth Liberthal, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution, referring to the host of reforms carried out by China since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) last year. Full story

China: GDP not the only benchmark, but still important

BEIJING, Dec. 10 (Xinhua) -- China has promised to cut the weight of GDP when assessing the work of local governments, but the country has not scrapped economic development, central authorities said Tuesday.

The Organization Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee issued a document on Monday promising to shift away from GDP-obsessed assessments of local governments as the nation attempts to bring its economy onto a more sustainable track. Full story

China to improve evaluation system to cut GDP obsession

BEIJING, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) -- China will improve its evaluation system for measuring economic performance, putting greater emphasis on growth quality to cut local obsession with GDP data, according to the head of the country's top economic planner.

China will increase the weight of factors such as resource consumption, environmental cost, work safety and local debt in assessing local economic growth, and put more emphasis on employment, resident income, social security and people's health, Xu Shaoshi, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said during an interview Tuesday. Full story

Editor: Yang Yi
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