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China's new yuan loans jump in November

English.news.cn   2013-12-11 18:02:03            

BEIJING, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's new yuan-denominated lending came in at 624.6 billion yuan (102 billion U.S. dollars) in November, an increase of 102.6 billion yuan from the same period last year, according to a statement issued by China's central bank on Wednesday.

The November figure jumped well beyond a market forecast of between 560 billion yuan and 580 billion yuan. The surge also came after new yuan loans for October unexpectedly fell to 506 billion yuan, missing market expectations of around 550 billion yuan.

Credit demand remained robust in November because higher economic growth in the third quarter and the key plenum of the Communist Party of China boosted confidence, according to Lu Ting, Zhi Xiaojia and Robbie Li, China economists with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a research note.

The analysts also cited improving external demand thanks to the recovery in the United States and the euro zone, evidenced by the better-than-expected export growth for November.

M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 14.2 percent year on year to 107.93 trillion yuan at the end of November, said the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

The narrow measure of money supply (M1), which covers cash in circulation plus demand deposits, expanded 9.4 percent year on year to 32.48 trillion yuan as of the end of last month.

Credit supply came in beyond market expectations but the general trend is stable, said Bank of Communications analyst E Yongjian. Full-year M2 growth may still miss the government macro-control target of 13 percent to stand at about 14 percent by the end of the year.

PBOC data also showed new yuan-denominated deposits totaled 547.2 billion yuan in November, an increase of 73.3 billion yuan from a year earlier.

Total social financing aggregate, a broad measure of liquidity in the economy, stood at 16.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, 1.92 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.

In November, social financing aggregate came in at 1.23 trillion yuan, 374 billion yuan more than a month ago and 105.3 billion yuan more than a year earlier.

Wednesday's data follow a string of economic indicators earlier in the week, including strong retail sales and steady growth in industrial production and urban fixed-asset investment.

The consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, grew 3 percent year on year in November, down from 3.2 percent in October.

"With a muted inflation and a pace of GDP growth in line with China's potential, we expect the government to maintain neutral monetary and fiscal policies for the next couple of quarters," said economists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

They stressed that the recent rise in average interbank rates and bond yields should not be taken as the central bank tightening when China is in the middle of interest rate liberation.

"Since both economic growth and inflation look stable, there is no need to change monetary policy," said Zhong Zhengsheng, an analyst with Guosen Securities. He said he expects the central bank to maintain its policy tone featuring slightly hawkish fine tuning.

 

Editor: chengyang
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