LONDON, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) -- The global geopolitical agenda in the coming year will be dominated by nuclear proliferation, terrorism and information warfare, one of the world's leading think-tanks said Wednesday in London.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has also warned of a spectacular terror attack in 2018 in the U.S.
Launching its 2017 Strategic Review, IISS warned rival powers will continue to exploit the opportunities opened up in 2017 by the fracturing of Western alliances until the damage is repaired.
On the themes likely to dominate 2018, IISS Director General Dr. John Chipman said: "There is a limit to what ad hoc coalitions and state-to-state collaboration can do on these issues. A rebuilding and in some cases a repurposing of regional institutions and security partnerships will be needed."
The report predicts disruptive engagement in Europe and elsewhere caused by information warfare.
Looking towards potential risks in 2018, IISS says most attention will be focused on North Korea, which is striving for a capability to hit the US with nuclear weapons.
It warns Israel may soon be engaged in a conflict with Iranian proxies and possibly Iran itself along its border with Syria and Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the deal to contain Iran's nuclear program is in jeopardy, with a risk the Middle East will return to a situation where an Israeli or US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is a strong possibility.
The losses suffered by the Islamic State, says the report, are inspiring an increased tempo of terrorist attacks around the world, with the U.S. or Saudi Arabia possibly facing "spectacular attacks", with more sustained threats emerging in Asia.
The actions of the U.S. administration have contributed to a trend over the last year that has seen the dramatic fracturing of international alliances and strategic relationships which had previously appeared solid, says the report. But it blames other state parties as well for what it describes as a significant phenomenon.
Focusing on the drivers of strategic change in 2017, the IISS report says doubts over how the U.S. defines its interests and conceives its global role under the Donald Trump administration have heightened anxieties among U.S. allies.
This has come at a time when the pace and complexity of threats from terrorism, nuclear proliferation and information warfare are increasing.
"The rest of the world is waiting to see whether the U.S. decision to reject the Trans-Pacific Partnership and leave the Paris climate agreement signals an abdication of a leadership role, or the start of a process by which that role is recast," the report says.
Looking at Europe, IISS says the imperative to maintain unity as Britain prepares to leave the European Union and the disruption caused by populist movements, is prompting member states towards introversion.
"The defeat of populist parties in the Netherlands and France does not mark the end of the challenge. Electorates remain discontented, and politics volatile," says the review.
