CHICAGO, June 24 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grains futures closed mixed over the trade week which ended on Friday, as uncertain weather forecasts have double effects on different crop futures.
CBOT corn futures fell 25 cents on improved Central U.S. weather, and the elimination of any high pressure ridging for early July.
Rather abruptly, abnormally cool temperatures have been established across the heart of the corn belt, which in the near term will ease concerns about dryness and provide a modest boost in crop ratings across Illinois, Indiana and Missouri.
Argentine corn fob basis has sunk to record lows and U.S. export demand will be slowing over the next 10-12 weeks.
However, unlike recent years, there's not a clear North American climate signal. Record warm ocean tempertures globally are causing fits for the model output, and analysts' best guess on the reminder of summer is wild swings in weather conditions. Heat and dryness is expected to reveal itself a few more times between now and September.
Technically, the market failed at recent highs, and so the long-established range will continue until weather in the second half of July is known.
Wheat futures ended mixed, but firm relative to neighboring corn and soy markets. CME futures fell a penny, Kansas city market fell 5 cents, while spring wheat futures rallied to new highs for the move at 6.60 U.S. dollars per bushel, basis spot.
Major world exporter production is in retreat and weather concern exists across northern U.S., Southern Canada, Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Australia. And most traders are concerned about the arrival of heat and dryness in the Black Sea next week.
Combined major exporter production may be down 4-5 million metric tons from the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast, and thus down roughly 20 million metric tons from last year.
Soybeans were under pressure at the start of the week as the extended weather forecasts turned cooler and wetter. Reduced weather threats, and selling ahead of key USDA June reports kept the soybean market under pressure through the week.
Spot July soybeans tested 9 U.S. dollars per bushel in late week trade, while new crop November slipped to 9 month lows.
Key USDA reports will be released at the end of the week with National Agricultural Statistics Service's count of June 1 soybean stocks and updated estimates of new crop acreage.
Trade estimates have soybean stocks at a decade old high, while the average estimate calls for a slight increase in soybean acres from March.
The soybean market is back to deeply oversold levels, and professional investors are not willing to advise sales at current prices, but adverse weather is needed to spur any kind of recovery into late summer.
