by Alessandra Cardone
ROME, April 22 (Xinhua) -- France's upcoming presidential election will be a key test for anti-European sentiments and may affect the political equilibrium within the European Union (EU), Italian analysts said.
Italian media have closely analyzed the major candidates and their respective programs over the past weeks, highlighting their crucial strong points and potential weaknesses.
They also analyzed -- as did many other media outlets in Europe -- the reason for the emergence of the top four contenders -- two Euro-skeptics and two who are committed to European integration.
The latest poll shows that centrist Emmanuel Macron, far-right Marine Le Pen, conservative Francois Fillon and far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon are the four frontrunners.
EU-RELATED ISSUE DECISIVE
Besides the terror threat, which was heightened after an attack on police on central Paris' Champs-Elysee Avenue some 60 hours before the voting, the dividing attitude toward EU-related issues was seen as a decisive factor that could determine the final outcome.
"French (people) have to be convinced (by) immigration and Europe," Roberto D' Alimonte, political analyst with Italy's leading business daily Il Sole 24 Ore, wrote on Friday.
Once, it was the left-right dimension that governs the French citizens' attitude towards political parties and their vote, he said.
"Now it is different: immigration on the one hand, and Europe on the other hand, are the two issues that have changed the political space in France, and not only there," the expert said.
A total of 11 candidates will compete for the presidency in a first round of voting on Sunday. In case no candidate passes the 50 percent threshold, the top two will face each other in a run-off slated for May 7.
The top four candidates are all separated by just a handful of percentage points from each other, which means all of them would have a chance of reaching the run-off.
IMPACT BEYOND FRANCE
Yet, the French presidency is not the only thing at stake in the race, since the impact of its outcome is likely to reach beyond French borders, said Edoardo Novelli, sociologist and professor of political communication at University of Rome III.
"Two key aspects have marked this French campaign," he told Xinhua. "Firstly, it is being watched in Italy and elsewhere as a sort of a key test for the recent wave of anti-European sentiments, and for the rise of far-right movements in Europe."
"Secondly, the French vote comes within a long row of elections (worldwide), many of which had surprising results, beginning with the British referendum to leave the EU, followed by the election of U.S. President Donald Trump," Novelli said.
Austria and the Netherlands also finished their government reshuffles in December 2016 and March 2017, respectively. And the French election will be followed by Britain's snap election in June, German federal election in September and Italian general election in the spring of 2018.
"The French vote is very likely to impact directly the political mood in other EU countries, Italy included ... We have seen it happen already," Novelli said.
"For example, if Brexit had not prevailed in Britain, and Hillary Clinton had become the U.S. president, European right-wing populist parties would have seen their political project diluted," the scholar explained
"On the contrary, they now enjoy a favorable wind," he added.
Furthermore, predominant issues in the French presidential campaign are all "supranational": economy and employment, security, immigration, and the euro, among others, Novelli pointed out.
"These are not specifically domestic issues anymore, and I expect they would dominate the next Italian electoral campaign as well," he said.
