by Zhao Xiaona, Martin Banks
BRUSSELS, March 9 (Xinhua) -- After Britain's decision to leave the European Union (EU), Europe's trajectory -- even its destiny -- has again become a matter of fierce debate.
Brexit marks both a major constitutional change for Britain and a significant rupture for the EU. Fears that the bloc itself could implode is why its leaders need a new plan to reinvigorate the European project ahead its 60th birthday, and make it fit for future challenges.
EUROPE OF MANY GEARS
Recently, the leaders of the euro zone's four biggest economies threw their weight behind the idea of a multi-speed Europe as the EU ponders over a future without Britain.
That's the idea that "coalitions of the willing" can move forward on big projects even if others want to linger on the starting line. It is already happening with the euro and with the passport-free Schengen area -- not all EU countries are members of everything.
French President Francois Hollande, during his meeting with leaders of Germany, Italy and Spain at the palace of Versailles on March 6, called for unity among the remaining 27 EU members in the wake of Britain's vote to leave, but said this did not mean uniformity.
He called for new forms of cooperation to allow some EU countries to push ahead more quickly in areas such as defense, deepening of economic and monetary union or tax harmonization.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU risks running into trouble unless it allowed members to participate at varying levels of intensity.
"We need to have the courage for some countries to go ahead if not everyone wants to participate," she said.
France and Germany have called for greater fiscal and social harmonization in the eurozone, saying other EU countries like Poland should be allowed to settle for a less integrated union based on the single market.
The idea of a multi-speed Europe is also backed by Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, or the so-called Benelux, a group of the EU's founding members.
Of all five scenarios recently proposed by EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for the way forward after Brexit, the real scenario is No 3: "Those who want more do more," which is another way of saying that the EU will be multi-speed.
EASTERN OPPOSITION
But some governments, especially in the east, fear this approach could entrench divisions to their disadvantage.
A multi-speed union would threaten the development of eastern members outside the euro area and potentially ignite social unrest, fears Hungarian Economy Minister Mihaly Varga.
The threat, he said, is that the gap between developed and less-developed EU member states "won't narrow significantly" in a multi-speed, post-Brexit Europe and this may carry with it "the potential to generate social unrest."
His fears are shared by the head of Poland's ruling party who warns that any moves toward a two-speed European Union would lead to the bloc falling apart.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski from the Law and Justice party (PiS) said a so-called two-speed Europe would lead to the "breakdown, and in fact the liquidation, of the European Union in its current sense."
The possibility of a multi-speed Europe should not be an objective, but a warning to all of Europe, a senior EU official said as leaders gather in Brussels to discuss which way the bloc should be headed after the Brexit.
"After Brexit, Rome should be not a message of disunity, but the unity of 27," he told journalists.
CONTINENTAL PARTNERSHIP
A possible solution might lie in a recently published paper, the outcome of a dialogue among five authors. In "Europe after Brexit: A proposal for a continental partnership," they propose a new form of collaboration after Brexit, a continental partnership.
This would result in a Europe with an inner circle, the EU, with deep and political integration, and an outer circle with less integration. Over the long-run this could also serve as a vision for structuring relations with Turkey, Ukraine and other countries, the authors argued.
One of the authors, Andre Sapir, professor at the Universite Libre de Bruxelles and senior fellow at Bruegel, a think tank, said: "Our proposal is to turn the rupture into an opportunity to reorganize Europe in two circles. The inner circle constitutes the EU with political aims and supranational constitutional structures. The outer circle, of European cooperation, adding countries not in the EU, would have more flexibility and be based on an intergovernmental structure, the Continental Partnership."
On the likelihood of a multi-speed EU, former British member of European Parliament Andrew Duff, a constitutional expert, said: "It's complicated. When people have no idea what to do next they plump for 'multi-speed Europe.' What's needed for it to work is German leadership and a strong Commission -- neither of which we have at the moment."
Britain's former Europe minister Denis MacShane said: "There has been a two-speed Europe since day one of Treaty of Rome -- roughly northern modern economies and southern weaker one. The euro and Schengen further divided Europe. But if core EU rules are thrown out, then it will be a no-speed EU."
The idea of a multi-speed EU is not particularly new but the process has stalled amid reluctance from some member states and diverging views between Germany and France themselves.
No document on the future of Europe is expected to emerge from the meeting of 27 EU leaders on Friday. The picture may become a little clearer later this month when EU's leaders minus Britain are due to make a declaration on Europe's future at the Rome summit marking the 60th anniversary of the bloc.
