PARIS, March 3 (Xinhua) -- Beyond the list of measures and announcements presented Thursday by French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, people can reasonably ask themselves on the clarity of the position of the neither right nor left former minister and on his ability to win the vote at the end of an unexpected presidential campaign.
Revealed for the first time Thursday in its entirety, the platform of the "En Marche" party seems so multiform that some analysts remain circumspect. Francois Hollande's former economy minister has the wind in his sails, however, especially in opinion polls. Even more so since he has garnered many sponsors, and the recent reinforcement of centrist Francois Bayrou.
At 39 years old, Emmanuel Macron dresses himself as a reformer and cultivates the image of a man who would like to bypass divisions and privilege a "third way." "Is it a rightwing program, is it a leftwing program? My response, it's that it's a program to make France enter the 21st Century, make the country succeed, and give a place to everyone in society," he said, Thursday, less than two months before the first round of voting, during a presentation highly orchestrated and policed.
In front of more than 300 French and foreign journalists, the former investment banker listed his policies related to themes established by "500 experts" and published on his campaign website. The first objective of the presidential candidate: cut short attacks on his "lack of a program," and to make people forget that he had clumsily declared in February that it was an "error" to think that the program was "the heart" of a campaign.
The En March candidate detailed six priorities: education and culture, employment, modernization of the economy, national security reinforcement, democratic reform and the defense of French interests abroad.
"It's a centrist program, that we could call social-liberal: it puts the accent on investment, buying power and salaries, and at the same time wants to make Franc return to European averages for public deficits, and improve economic competitivity," summarized Bruno Cautres, a researcher at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS).
"Emmanuel Macron wants to situate himself at the intersection of the right and left. We find in his program economic measures that a centrist rightwing candidate wouldn't complain about (60 billion euros of savings in state and local spending, unemployment benefits and healthcare reform) and also social dimensions at especially investment in the future (training, ecological transition) which are fairly important," argued the academic.
"One of the most notable propositions, it's the exoneration of 80 percent of households of housing taxes. For the rest, these are measures rather along the same lines that we saw with Manuel Valls as Prime Minister or primary candidate: competitivity for firms, reduction of public spending and deficits. We cannot therefore say that this program strikes with its novelty, rather that it first in the continuity of what center-left or center-right governments do in Europe," pointed out Bruno Cautres.
The "revolution" announced by Emmanuel Macron in his eponymous book could very well not be so revolutionary. "We are seeing the birth of a catch-all candidate," argues Virginie Martine, political scientist who teaches at Kedge Business School.
"We cannot know with certainty if EM -- the movement and the candidate -- will know how to seduce more than the elites. Will this catch-all candidate know how to catch all the voters, in all the social classes and all the regions of France?" she continued.
In the eyes of Thomas Guenole, a political scientist at the Institute Sciences Po in Paris, "the ideology of Macron is basically opportunism." "He waited as long as possible before telling us his platform," Guenole said. In the context of rightwing candidate Francois Fillon's plummeting popularity due to a fake jobs scandal, "Emmanuel Macron remains however he could be an alternative for voters on the right who do not want to become voters on the extreme right."
The En Marche candidate claims to be able to reunite "several political families," with "the social-democrat left, the leftist radicals, the greens, the center, the right," and even proclaimed himself Thursday as the candidate of "the middle and lower classes." But can he convince the voters of the traditional left? With his proposition which consists of removing unemployment benefits after the refusal of two "decent" employment offers, doesn't he risk losing his constituency?
"Two points pose him problems. This measure as well as the alignment of the pension system for civil servants with that of private workers. These are symbols to which the left is very attached. He can expect criticism," said the researcher Bruno Cautres.
Attempting to marry policies from the right and from the left could turn out to be counter-productive for Macron, according to some observers. Wanting to please everyone, he could finish by pleasing no one, beyond the core of his movement, and appear like a tightrope walker. Some analysts think that the En Marche candidate, despite his disruptive discourse, fits within the continuity of Francois Hollande's government, for which he largely inspired economic policy.
In terms of public finances, Macron wants France to go on a diet. He promises to save 60 billion euros by 2022, in order to return public spending from today's 56.5 percent of GDP to 52 percent, slashing in half the gap between France and the rest of the eurozone (48.5 percent). But the expected increase in interest rates could deprive him of a lever which counted for 40 percent of the reduction in public deficits since 2011, according to the Court of Accounts.
Regarding Macron's European project, which supports federalism for the eurozone with the creation of a proper budget, a "minister of economy and finances" and a parliament gathering elected officials from member states, he is banking on a victory by the German left in September. Many unknowns remain however, regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed measures while Berlin has opposed all "mutualization" of risks and debts since 2010.
In the short term, the race for the Presidency remains open. According to the barometer set by YouGov for the HuffPost and Cnews, Emmanuel Macron "is rather seen as rightwing by left sympathizers (32 percent), and as leftwing by right sympathizers (27 percent)," only 21 percent of French voters would hope that he wins the presidential election. Furthermore, the defections from Fillon's campaign have made more likely a candidacy for Alain Juppe, which would not sit on the fence between right and left.
