by Eric J. Lyman
ROME, Jan. 29 (Xinhua) -- A Constitutional Court ruling this week opened the door to new elections in Italy, as much as a year before scheduled. But it's not clear whether the country's polarized political landscape will be able to agree on terms that would make it happen.
Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni took power in December, the country's fourth consecutive prime minister to come into office without a national vote. He was appointed after the December resignation of Matteo Renzi, who stepped down after the failure of a constitutional referendum he championed.
Gentiloni's low-key style combined with widespread political fatigue after a bruising six-month battle leading up to the constitutional referendum has ushered in a period of relative calm. But that calm papers over a level of disaccord between the country's major political factions that could soon come to light.
"You don't have the same shouting and finger pointing we saw in Italy last year," Gian Franco Gallo, a political affairs expert with ABS Securities in Milan, told Xinhua. "But don't let that fool anyone. The various sides still don't agree on many things."
Italy's political landscape is divided among three major camps: the Democratic Party led by Renzi and Gentiloni, the Five-Star Movement headed by comedian and activist Beppe Grillo, and Forza Italia, founded by former prime minister and billionaire media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi.
The Democratic Party, the country's largest, is split on the question of new elections. Renzi's supporters within the party are in favor of it, according to John Cabot University President Franco Pavoncello, in order to solidify Renzi's position as the party's standard bearer. In contrast, the sizable anti-Renzi faction within the party would rather let the elections take place in mid-2018 as scheduled, in hopes Renzi may fade by then.
"The results of the next election probably don't matter to Renzi as much as the idea that he would be the one leading the party into the election as its general secretary," Pavoncello said in an interview. "That would solidify his stature. But for members [of the Democratic Party] who want to see someone else lead, they will want to wait."
Renzi seems to be banking on new elections: he recently unveiled a new website aimed in part on rehabilitating his image after his high-profile defeat last year. It shows him dressed casually, along with the tagline: "There are many ways to start. And restart."
Grillo and the Five-Star Movement, meanwhile, played a key role in defeating Renzi's resolution in December, and they believe they would do well in new elections, especially under the current system that would lead to an unstable government where the Five-Star Movement can play its trademark disruptive role. The party would not run the government, since it is almost guaranteed to fall short of an outright majority and it has always refused to form a coalition with any other parties.
And the 80-year-old Berlusconi said in an interview published in "Il Foglio" newspaper Friday that he would agree to new elections only if the various parties can agree on changes to the electoral laws to make the next government more stable -- something Grillo and his allies are likely to oppose.
"There has been a lot of speculation that elections could happen quickly," Pavoncello said. "But I'm not so sure that will happen."
One factor Pavoncello, Gallo, and others said may play a key role: pensions for first-term members of parliament get locked in in September. That means that any election held before then would leave freshmen members of the legislature without pensions unless they managed re-election.
"Knowing Italian politics, I think it's safe to say that is on the minds of a lot of members of parliament," Gallo said.
