DUBLIN, Jan. 19 (Xinhua) -- An Irish official warned on Thursday that a hard Brexit could result in a 30 percent drop in exports to Britain and add 20 billion euros (21 billion U.S. dollars) to Ireland's national debt over the next decade.
In a speech to the parliament's finance committee, John McCarthy, assistant secretary general and chief economist of the Department of Finance, said the significant drop-off in trade with Britain following a hard Brexit would be driven by higher tariffs on Irish goods.
McCarthy's estimates came from a model of what a hard Brexit might mean for Ireland, which was produced by the think-tank Economic and Social Research Institute and the Department of Finance.
The economic modelling work suggests that Ireland's GDP would be 3.5 percent smaller after five years and 4 percent smaller after 10 year than it would have been without Brexit.
Exports to Britain will fall 30 percent, the models suggest, while total exports will be 4 percent smaller.
The Irish official also said the impact on the country's economy could also lead to up to 40,000 job losses.
He said the potential jobs losses would come "in the first instance from trade channels".
In a decisive speech on Tuesday that sets a course for a clean break with the European Union (EU), British Prime Minister Theresa May promised to quit the European single market and seek a free trade agreement with the EU.
The 12-point blueprint was dubbed a "hard Brexit".
