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News Analysis: Development, growth in Colombia to face obstacles after peace

Source: Xinhua   2016-09-27 16:48:17

CARACAS, Sept. 26 (Xinhua) -- After half a century of bloodshed in Colombia, the signing of a permanant peace accord Monday between the government and leftist rebels is expected to herald an era of growth for the South American country, yet many difficulties remain to be overcome.

Analysts say the peace accord signed in the northern Colombian port city of Cartagena, yet to be approved by a national referendum on Oct. 2, will bring stability and improve the investment environment in the country.

Data from Colombia's National Center for Historical Memory showed the 52-year-long civil war has left 220,000 people dead, 25,000 missing and over 5.7 million homeless in the country. A survey by a peace and development research institute estimated the economic loss was up to 179 billion U.S. dollars.

Despite the expectation that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will turn from being the country's largest guerrilla group to a political party, it takes time to heal wounds and build reconciliation and mutual trust, analysts say.

On top of this, social integration of the FARC members expected to return their homes is a long-time process that calls for patience and assistance from all sectors of society.

It will be a tough challenge to make them skilled workers that earn their own living in a short time even with the help of government-sponsored job training programs, said French sociologist Daniel Pecaut.

Difficulties and obstacles in social integration and civilian life are likely to turn some of them to drug trafficking or organized crime, as was the case in Salvador and Guatemala, he said.

Multiple research and financial institutions estimated that it will take the Colombian government between 27.6 billion and 31.1 billion dollars over a decade, or one percent of gross domestic product (GDP), per year to resettle FARC members and rebuild conflict areas.

At the same time, experts expect the reconstruction in conflict areas will create jobs and attract investment, although it will take time for foreign investors to regain confidence in the country.

After the peace accord is implemented, Colombia's annual GDP will increase by between 1.1 and 1.9 percentage points, with an extra double-digit growth in exports, retail sales and industries, said a joint report released by Colombia's Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism and the National Planning Department.

The report also predicted a foreign direct investment inflow of 36 billion dollars by 2024, more than tripling the 2015 figure; and meanwhile exports valued at some 61.4 billion dollars, 1.7 times that in 2015. In each year by 2018, fast growth in tourism is expected to bring in 6 billion dollars in foreign currency revenue and create 300,000 jobs.

In addition, the Monday peace accord is expected to serve as an example and put Colombia on the path of lasting peace nationwide, as government talks with the country's second-largest rebel armed group, the National Liberation Army, are yet to be held.

Many other armed groups active in the country are foreseen to fill in the vaccum left by the FARC in drug trafficking, posing a new challenge to Colombia's security and anti-drug war.

Drug planting and trafficking in war-ravaged Colombia have been an important source of funds for rebel armed groups including the FARC, which is best armed of all and had in its prime up to 17,000 members and control of 40 percent of Colombian territory.

Editor: Mengjie
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News Analysis: Development, growth in Colombia to face obstacles after peace

Source: Xinhua 2016-09-27 16:48:17
[Editor: huaxia]

CARACAS, Sept. 26 (Xinhua) -- After half a century of bloodshed in Colombia, the signing of a permanant peace accord Monday between the government and leftist rebels is expected to herald an era of growth for the South American country, yet many difficulties remain to be overcome.

Analysts say the peace accord signed in the northern Colombian port city of Cartagena, yet to be approved by a national referendum on Oct. 2, will bring stability and improve the investment environment in the country.

Data from Colombia's National Center for Historical Memory showed the 52-year-long civil war has left 220,000 people dead, 25,000 missing and over 5.7 million homeless in the country. A survey by a peace and development research institute estimated the economic loss was up to 179 billion U.S. dollars.

Despite the expectation that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will turn from being the country's largest guerrilla group to a political party, it takes time to heal wounds and build reconciliation and mutual trust, analysts say.

On top of this, social integration of the FARC members expected to return their homes is a long-time process that calls for patience and assistance from all sectors of society.

It will be a tough challenge to make them skilled workers that earn their own living in a short time even with the help of government-sponsored job training programs, said French sociologist Daniel Pecaut.

Difficulties and obstacles in social integration and civilian life are likely to turn some of them to drug trafficking or organized crime, as was the case in Salvador and Guatemala, he said.

Multiple research and financial institutions estimated that it will take the Colombian government between 27.6 billion and 31.1 billion dollars over a decade, or one percent of gross domestic product (GDP), per year to resettle FARC members and rebuild conflict areas.

At the same time, experts expect the reconstruction in conflict areas will create jobs and attract investment, although it will take time for foreign investors to regain confidence in the country.

After the peace accord is implemented, Colombia's annual GDP will increase by between 1.1 and 1.9 percentage points, with an extra double-digit growth in exports, retail sales and industries, said a joint report released by Colombia's Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism and the National Planning Department.

The report also predicted a foreign direct investment inflow of 36 billion dollars by 2024, more than tripling the 2015 figure; and meanwhile exports valued at some 61.4 billion dollars, 1.7 times that in 2015. In each year by 2018, fast growth in tourism is expected to bring in 6 billion dollars in foreign currency revenue and create 300,000 jobs.

In addition, the Monday peace accord is expected to serve as an example and put Colombia on the path of lasting peace nationwide, as government talks with the country's second-largest rebel armed group, the National Liberation Army, are yet to be held.

Many other armed groups active in the country are foreseen to fill in the vaccum left by the FARC in drug trafficking, posing a new challenge to Colombia's security and anti-drug war.

Drug planting and trafficking in war-ravaged Colombia have been an important source of funds for rebel armed groups including the FARC, which is best armed of all and had in its prime up to 17,000 members and control of 40 percent of Colombian territory.

[Editor: huaxia]
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