U.S. presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in New York, the United States, July 16, 2016. U.S. presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump announced on Friday he had chosen Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his running mate. (Xinhua/Li Muzi)
By Matthew Rusling
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump needs to make the election a referendum on rival Hillary Clinton if he wants to clinch the White House in November, experts said.
The brash and argumentative Trump risks losing votes to Americans who could choose Clinton simply because she's an alternative to Trump, who is struggling to overcome perceptions that he's a hot head and does not possess the temperament to be president.
Trump has galvanized rank-and-file Republicans who are fed up with elites in Washington they believe do not represent them, and are fed up with the weak economy that has taken a serious toll on the country's working class, despite denial in Washington.
At the same time, Trump has made outlandish statements that have sparked serious concern about him, comparing Mexicans to rapists and calling for a ban on Muslims coming to the United States. That has offended the crucial Latino voting block and has turned off many independents.
But if Trump can turn the tables on Clinton and make the elections a referendum on Clinton's many scandals and perceived leadership failures, he could well clinch the White House, experts argued.
"Right now the election is a referendum on Trump," Republican strategist Ford O' Connell told Xinhua. "If he can make it a referendum on Hillary Clinton, or what the white working class voter perceives as a rigged economy, he will win."
"Trump wants to make it a referendum on Clinton and Clinton wants to make it a referendum on Trump. Whoever wins that war is going to win the election," O' Connell said.
Monday kicked off the long awaited Republican National Convention, where Trump is expected to pick up the party's official endorsement as their presidential candidate.
At a time when the U.S. is reeling from the ambush and murder of nearly a dozen police officers within less than two weeks, and tensions between blacks and police are at a decades-long high, Trump is touting as the "law and order" candidate.
This also comes at a time when terrorists are on the march worldwide, having carried out major terror attacks in the last month in the U.S. state of Florida, Istanbul of Turkey and Paris of France, resulting in the death of hundreds of innocent civilians.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the NAACP National Convention in Cincinnati, Ohio on July 18, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / Jay LaPrete
Trump has labelled Clinton as incompetent while serving as Secretary of State under President Barack Obama, because the world has become more dangerous under Obama's watch, and Clinton played a role in the resurgence of terrorism.
Trump has also argued that the recent spate of anti-police violence, in which five officers in Dallas, Texas and three officers in Baton Rouge, Louisiana were ambushed and killed by black gunmen, threatens to spiral into a total breakdown of law and order in the United States.
The New York real estate tycoon has contended that a Clinton victory would make these situations worse, and experts said if he continues this narrative successfully, he may well win.
In a recent Gallup poll, the only two institutions in the U.S. that currently have majority popular support are the military and the police, at a time when Americans take a dim view on most institutions, especially Congress. That may bode well for Trump, experts said.
Democratic nominee Clinton leads the bombastic billionaire by just 3.2 points in Monday's Real Clear Politics' national poll average - which is essentially a tie, given the 2-point margin of error.
But Trump is leading in a number of crucial swing states, according to recent polls.
The Quinnipiac University's swing states poll showed Trump is ahead in the states of Florida and Pennsylvania, while he is tied with Clinton in Ohio. That bodes well for Trump in a system whereby winning or losing those states often makes or breaks a candidate.
"He can win, but he obviously doesn't have time on his side. But the recent bad week for Hillary Clinton with the emails really helped him out a lot," O' Connell noted.
Indeed, recent weeks saw the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) fail to indict Clinton over accusations that her use of a non-government email account and a server in her home was a breach of national security standards while she served as secretary of state.
But, while Clinton was cleared, FBI chief James Comey said publicly that the candidate was irresponsible in dealing with the nation's security.
