RIO DE JANEIRO, June 16, 2016 (Xinhua) -- File photo taken on Feb. 4, 2016, shows Pollyana Rabello (L), holding her baby, Luiz Philipe, who was born with microcephaly, in their house in Marica, Rio de Janeiro state. Brazil has confirmed 1,581 cases of microcephaly related to the Zika virus since October last year, the Health Ministry said on June 15, 2016. (Xinhua/Daniel Castelo Branco/Agencia o Dia/AGENCIA ESTADO)
WASHINGTON, July 14 (Xinhua) -- The current Zika epidemic in Latin America is likely to be largely over within three years, a new study showed Thursday.
That's because people are unlikely to be infected with Zika twice, according to the study published in the U.S. journal Science.
The resulting herd immunity, when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, will likely then delay the next large Zika epidemic for more than a decade.
"This study uses all available data to provide an understanding of how the disease will unfold -- and allows us to gauge the threat in the imminent future," lead author Neil Ferguson, professor of the Imperial College London, said in a statement.
"Our analysis suggests that Zika spread is not containable, but that the epidemic will burn itself out within 2-3 years."
The Zika virus is carried by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, but the study cautioned any large-scale government programs to target the mosquitoes may have limited impact.
"The virus is very similar to the dengue virus, and transmitted by the same mosquito. But previous experience with dengue has shown controlling spread to be incredibly difficult," Ferguson said.
"Also, efforts to contain the epidemic would have needed to have been implemented much earlier in the current Zika epidemic to have a major effect -- but by the time we realized the scale of the problem it was too late. "
He cautioned that targeting mosquitoes could actually be counterproductive, because that means the population will take longer to reach the level of herd immunity needed for transmission to stop.
Related:
Rio Olympics only poses Zika threat to 4 countries: U.S. CDC
WASHINGTON, July 13 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Wednesday downplayed concern that the Rio Olympics will help spread the Zika virus worldwide, saying that the upcoming Games only posed "unique risk" to four small countries.
In a risk analysis report, the CDC said the risk of Zika virus transmission during the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro will be low because August and September are winter months in Brazil, when cooler and drier weather typically reduces mosquito populations. Full story
Romania confirms first Zika infection case
BUCHAREST, July 12 (Xinhua) -- A 27-year-old woman is the first person in Romania to test positive for the Zika virus, after she returned from French Island of Martinique in the eastern Caribbean Sea, the Romanian ministry of health announced Tuesday.
"Her case is an isolated one, linked to a trip taken in an area with active transmitter of the virus," said ministry spokesperson Laurentiu Colintineanu, stressing, "We are not talking about an infection in Romania, but a so-called imported case." Full story
Brazil's health minister assures Olympic guests of "minimal" Zika risks
BEIJING, July 7 (Xinhua) -- Brazilian Health Minister Ricardo Barros has assured the world that Brazil's healthcare system is all set for the Olympic Games, with "preventive actions in place" against the mosquito that causes the Zika virus.
"The country's healthcare system is duly prepared for this big moment, with preventive actions in place against the Aedes aegypti, 24/7 monitoring in the six cities hosting the games and trained professionals who are qualified to attend to emergencies," the minister said in a faxed statement to Xinhua on Thursday. Full story
