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by Maria Vasileiou
THE HAGUE, June 25 (Xinhua) -- Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union (EU) means increased challenges for the mainstream political parties in the Netherlands and a negative impact on the Dutch economy, experts say.
"With Euroscepticism on the rise Brexit is expected to strengthen populist, anti-Brussels voices in the Netherlands and across the EU," said Adriaan Schout, senior research fellow and coordinator Europe at Clingendael, the influential Dutch institute for international relations.
Geert Wilders of the Dutch anti-European Freedom party, whose polling results suggest it is currently the most popular party and could win a significant share of parliament's 150 seats in elections in March next year, has said Brexit would make it easier for other countries to make the same decision.
"We want to be in charge of our own country, our own money, our own borders, and our own immigration policy," said Wilders after results from Thursday's referendum showed a 52-48 percent split for leaving.
The Netherlands' own membership of the EU is likely to be a dominant issue in next year's election campaign. The Netherlands will go to the polls to elect a new government in March 2017.
Being one of the most proponent EU member states the Dutch politics will also be negatively influenced by the Brexit implications affecting the EU as a whole, Schout said, predicting a period of political uncertainty concerning EU's future reform agenda.
Britain's decision to exit the EU could prompt some member states to renegotiate their relationship with Brussels, the political expert told Xinhua.
"We might see deeper divisions concerning what reforms Brussels must undergo," He expected escalating differences between the northern and southern European countries.
In a similar tone Joris Larik, senior researcher at The Hague Institute for Global Justice, a renowned institute for international relations, said the Brexit vote might result in a new wave of referenda across the EU, including the Netherlands. He warned that such a process would block EU progress.
"Voices are already being raised in the Netherlands for a 'Nexit' referendum by far-right wing politicians. However, the situation of the Netherlands as a smaller, continental country, which is a founding member of the EU, is very different to that of the UK. Considering a 'Nexit" is therefore highly premature and misplaced for the near future," Larik told Xinha.
On a broader European context he noted that Brexit means renewed questioning of the viability of the European construction and severe obstructing of further integration efforts.
"The Brexit vote puts the EU under enormous pressure to prove that it can deliver and to avoid escalating costs," said the expert.
"The leaders of the EU 27 would have to send a clear message that the Brexit vote really means that the UK is a third country and that there won't be another path of negotiations leading to special treatment," he noted.
"By agreeing to a special deal other European member states might ask for exceptions and special treatment, causing additional political and economic blows to the bloc's future and increasing the potential for fragmentation," he added.
But Schout thinks the EU will be more economically and politically damaged, if it faces the departure of its most free-market proponent from the single market.
"If certain European countries decide to punish the UK for turning its back to the EU by denying access to the single market then the situation will be even more difficult," he said.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who takes part in emergency meetings in Brussels on Friday, has indicated the Netherlands would prefer the UK to remain a single market member.
In a joint statement released earlier Friday the four presidents of the main EU institutions said they regretted Britain's decision but accepted it, ruling out renegotiations after Brexit.
Martin Schulz, President of the European Parliament, Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, Mark Rutte, Holder of the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU, and Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission called on Britain to notify as soon as possible the British people decision.
Schout also warned that "EU might face additional risk and even a bigger risk if Britain faces a prolonged period of political uncertainty".
The vote is expected to initiate at least two years of divorce proceedings with the EU, the first exit by any member state.
Following the results British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned, conceding that he can no longer lead the country following devastating referendum defeat.
For the Dutch economy, Brexit will have a negative impact if it leads to the rise of trade barriers between Britain and the EU, warned Barbara Baarsma Director of Knowledge Development at Rabobank and professor of Market Forces and Competition Issues at the University of Amsterdam.
Britain is the third most important export partner of the Netherlands. Dutch exports to the UK amount to 8 percent of total Dutch export and contribute 2.3 percent to Dutch GDP.
"Britain's exit would derail the Dutch process towards economic recovery," echoed Larik.
"In addition, certain EU countries including the Netherlands might have to increase their contribution to the EU budget to replace the UK's contribution," he added. Britain's annual net contribution to the EU budget is around 17 billion euros (about 19 billion U.S. dollars).
Dutch companies will especially be affected by the uncertainty about the future trade relations with Britain in the short term and a weaker pound and a possible economic slowdown in Britain could harm Dutch exports, according to Baarsma.
But "the UK could remain an important trading partner," she suggested.
The long term impact will depend on the future trade agreements between the EU and Britain. Rabobank reports suggest three scenarios: British membership of the European Economic Area (like Norway); bilateral free trade agreement between the EU and Britain (like Switzerland or Canada); no trade agreement.
Earlier this month the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) warned that the Dutch exposure to Breixt would be greater than for other members of the bloc and could trim 1.2 percent off the Netherlands' economy by 2030.
The worst-hit sectors of the Dutch economy would be chemicals, plastics and rubber, electronic equipment, motor vehicles and parts, the food processing industry and metals and minerals. Enditem
