MELBOURNE, June 21 (Xinhua) -- Australia's booming fruit industry could be significantly impacted by climate change, according to a new research from the University of Melbourne.
Scientists said warmer temperatures could greatly affect production of Australia's favorite varieties of fruits and nuts, such as apples, pears, apricots and almonds.
In a national project led by the Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre (PICCC), Australian researchers from the University of Melbourne and Agriculture Victoria explored how climate change will affect Australia's 2.4-million-U.S. dollar fruit industry, including potential major challenges to its agriculture.
Using climate modeling, which is used to predict future climate change, the report showed that by 2030, hotter weather in Australia's summer, and fewer chilled days during winter, is likely to have a major impact on Australia's fruit production.
During winter, fruit trees begin their evolutionary 'dormant phase,' which prevents cold damage to the growth of their sensitive shoots and flowers, in response to a winter warm period.
When the trees receive a certain amount of cold winter weather, known as a 'chill requirement,' they sense that winter has finished, and will flourish in response to warm temperatures.
Rebecca Darbyshire, from the Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, said the winter weather in some of Australia's warmer fruit-growing regions might be too mild to support the fruit production.
"We found there's a significant risk of insufficient accumulation of winter chill in some current production areas, including WA's Manjimup and Donnybrook regions and the Applethorpe region in Queensland," Darbyshire told a University of Melbourne publication on Tuesday.
Some areas in Australia, including Western Australian and Queensland, may not get enough winter chill to capitalize their fruit production. Fruit growers have been advised to transition to different varieties and crops that require less chill.
"While the likely future risk of climate change is varied dependent on the timeline and location, the research suggests larger transformational change might need to be considered," she said.
"That means potentially changing the crop growers' produce."
During the Australian summer at the end of the year, fruit farmers in some regions will need to make changes to cope with the predicted extreme heat to withstand losing a significant amount of fruit from sunburn damage.
The research outlined the importance of understanding future climate change and its impacts across growing regions and different varieties, as the decisions made on the Australian fruit industry will affect production for the next few decades.
