Brazil's acting President Michel Temer takes part in the inauguration ceremony of the new ministers of his government, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, on May 12, 2016. (Xinhua file photo/Dida Sampaio/Estadao Conteudo/AGENCIA ESTADO)
by Chris Dalby
BRASILIA, June 17 (Xinhua) -- General Charles de Gaulle may be a war hero in France but, in Brazil, his name angers more than a few. An urban legend in the country states that de Gaullle once disparaged Brazil, saying it "is not a serious country."
While de Gaulle never said this phrase, this jibe still irks a country proud of its celebrated multiculturalism, its BRICS status and its progressive economy. Well, scratch the last one.
When, on May 12, the interim government of Michel Temer took over from the suspended President Dilma Rousseff, economists expressed quiet confidence that the country could slowly get back on track.
To his credit, over the first month of his tenure, Temer did not let corruption allegations halt his roadmap. He successfully passed a series of financial measures through Congress, including a cap on government spending and an increased deficit ceiling.
These policies were criticized by Rousseff on Friday, who continues to maintain that Temer led a coup against her. At a rally in the northeastern state of Bahia, she also accused Temer of trying to "end social problems, reduce health and education spending, and to deliver the country's resources to private interests."
However, Rousseff's impeachment is almost besides the point for the time being. Her trial will begin in August and she will have her day in court. Even though unelected, Temer currently has a mandate to at least try and bring a fresh vision to Brazilian politics.
Should he fail to do so, however, Rousseff's return to power is not impossible. Evidence brought by an accomplice in the Petrobras corruption ring, Sergio Machado, former president of the state-owned Transpetro, have stoked the fires under Temer.
Two ministers fell in quick succession under corruption allegations and Temer stated any member of his cabinet would have to step down under such circumstances.
This week, Henrique Alves, the tourism minister and a leader in Temer's Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) was the third to go.
In a new statement by Machado, he claimed that he had provided Temer, through the intermediary of Alves, with 1.5 million reais (430,000 U.S. dollars) to finance the PMDB's candidate to be mayor of Sao Paulo in 2012.
Alves promptly stepped down but Temer fought back, calling the accusation "flighty, criminal lies" and threatening legal actions.
However, the pressure is on. The PMDB and other parties in Congress ousted Rousseff, albeit temporarily, without her being charged of a crime. Temer is unlikely to be granted much more leeway, given this situation.
A poll released earlier this week showed that only 11 percent of Brazilians are happy with his government, 44 percent believe corruption will worsen under his watch, 52 percent believe unemployment will rise and 67 percent would prefer that early elections be held this year, instead of in 2018.
Temer must now make a choice. He can either maintain a steady ship, continuing to push for an economic turnaround as evidence his policies are working. In doing so, he may hope that a ray of financial sunshine on a country crippled by recession will outweigh the corruption investigations against his government.
This week, the central bank pointed out that Brazil had returned to growth in April, albeit by an anemic 0.03 percent. Temer was buoyed by this news, even though Rousseff still stood at the time.
Petrobras, the company at the heart of all these problems, is also slowly getting back on track. It recently announced that it had received credible offers to buy BR Distribuidora, the largest oil distributor in Latin America. Offloading this valuable subsidiary lies at the heart of Petrobras' divestment strategy to pay down debt and recoup investor confidence.
Sticking to this "business as usual" strategy, if successful, would allow Temer to put the PMDB in a good position to win the next presidential election, although he himself is ineligible to stand.
The second is a perilous strategy but may go further in pleasing protesters. Instead of trying to stymie Operation Car Wash, the investigation into Petrobras, Temer should let it run its course.
While this corruption probe has wrecked confidence in Brazilian politics, the country can also do something nobody has ever dared: a clear-out.
This is a longer and untested road, one which might cost the PMDB any chance at the next election. However, this may be the more immediate way to secure confidence among people and investors alike. It may also be the best way for Temer to secure his legacy.
Related:
One-third of Brazilians view Temer gov't negatively: poll
BRASILIA, June 14 (Xinhua) -- About 34 percent of Brazilians disapprove of the government of interim President Michel Temer, a poll revealed on Tuesday.
The Temer government's first month in power was pummeled by a series of scandals and missteps, leading to low public support that bodes ill for its reform plans.
