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By Matthew Rusling
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Xinhua) -- It will be harder for the terror group Islamic State (IS) to launch massive terror attacks in the U.S. than in Europe amid the rising terror threat worldwide, a U.S. expert has said.
But at the same time, the danger of "lone wolf" attacks by a single terrorist or radicalized individuals always exists and is harder to prevent, Colin P. Clarke, a RAND Corporation's associate political scientist, told Xinhua in an interview.
IS radicals are calling for followers to hit the United States and Europe during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts this week. And the recent setbacks in the Middle East could make IS even more dangerous in the West as it struggles to prove it is still relevant.
In a recording released online in later May, IS spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani called for launching further terror attacks against Western targets.
"The U.S. is as ready as any country can possibly be to deal with a terrorist attack," said Clarke. "I think something like Paris or Brussels would be much harder in the U.S., but that's not to say it would be impossible."
He was referring to the recent massive terror attacks in the two European cities that resulted in heavy civilian casualties.
What differentiates the U.S. from Europe is that Europe is obviously closer geographically to the ongoing conflict in Syria and has a more serious issue with the demographics in countries like the United Kingdom., France, and Belgium, Clarke said.
He noted that in European countries, there is a more robust logistical network potentially in place to provide would-be terrorists with the types of support they need-safe houses, weapons, bomb-making materials, forged documents, vehicles.
Moreover, in many U.S. states it is perfectly legal for law abiding citizens to carry firearms on their person, which could thwart a terror attack in progress and prevent the terrorist from impacting the maximum possible damage, as it usually their goal, Clarke said.
Meanwhile, despite IS calls for Ramadan attacks, Clarke said it is difficult to put a percentage on or quantify the likelihood that an individual or group of individuals will attempt to conduct such attacks.
"I think the threat is constant, but certainly when a top-level figure in (IS) makes a public plea for followers to conduct attacks, it's something law enforcement, security and intelligence personnel need to take seriously," he said.
"I think Europe in particular has been on high alert since Brussels and for good reason. I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt is made on behalf of IS," he said.
Still, while U.S. police departments and emergency responders in the major cities are well-prepared and well-resourced for a potential terror attack, it is unfortunately not possible to stop every attack, Clarke pointed out.
He cited the shooting rampage in last December in San Bernadino, California, where an armed radicalized couple killed 14 people in what authorities deemed an act of terrorism.
"Pulling off something similar to San Bernadino, where firearms are used on soft targets, is a fact of life we've gotten used to in this country, which is a shame," Clarke said.
A small arms attack against a soft target would be the easiest thing for a terrorist group or "lone wolf" to pull off successfully, Clarke warned.
Indeed, U.S. intelligence and police leaders have always warned about the danger of "lone wolf" attacks in the U.S. by terror groups or radicalized individuals.
James Clapper, director of U.S. National Intelligence, warned at a Senate hearing in February that IS is America's "number one terrorist threat," as it was attempting to launch direct attacks on the U.S. homeland in 2016.
