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MEXICO CITY, Oct. 23 (Xinhua) -- Experts say that warm ocean temperature and low wind shear, driven by the El Nino phenomenon, are the reason why Patricia grew so quickly in two days into one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded.
Falko Judt, a meteorologist from the University of Miami, told The Atlantic magazine the intensification was not entirely unexpected. "Everything looked toward it becoming a strong hurricane. It's just incredible how strong it got."
On Wednesday evening, it was still a tropical storm. On Thursday morning, it was a Category 1 hurricane. On Friday morning, the Mexican government called it the "strongest hurricane ever recorded."
Judt said the two factors that govern hurricane intensity are ocean temperature and wind shear. The ocean-surface temperature under Patricia was very warm and measured 31 degrees Celsius, which provided the storm with a lot of fuel.
At the same time, wind shear was very low, which meant that wind was blowing in the same direction across multiple levels of atmosphere and there was little frictional drag on the storm, Judt said, adding that the two factors were aided further by very high humidity locally.
Judt also said he believes El Nino was partially to blame. El Nino is a Pacific Ocean-spanning climate phenomenon, in which the eastern part of the ocean, near the equator, becomes warmer than usual.
Judt said Mexico is close enough to the equator to feel the effects. "It's always hard to attribute one single storm to a larger phenomenon like El Nino, but it most likely did play a role."
While Mexico braced itself for the storm and evacuated thousands from the states of Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, Patricia was downgraded to a Class 4 hurricane about an hour after it made landfall on Friday evening.
According to Mexican television station Milenio, it appears the eye of the storm did not strike the coast head on as had been feared. As it approached Jalisco, it turned northward slightly, making its landfall marginally softer.
Patricia is expected to continue to weaken on Saturday, perhaps being downgraded as a tropical storm.
However, with torrential rains still expected to affect much of central and western Mexico over Saturday, the risk of landslides and floods remains high.
