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WASHINGTON, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- The introduction of thousands of Ebola treatment beds prevented an estimated 57,000 Ebola cases and 40,000 deaths in Sierra Leone, a new study has found.
"Our findings show the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in Ebola transmission," lead author Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said in a statement.
"Given the rapid growth of the outbreak in Sierra Leone, if those beds hadn't been in place to isolate the ill and avert further infections, the epidemic could have been much worse."
Figures from the World Health Organization showed that there have been 13,945 reported cases of Ebola in Sierra Leone to date, with an estimated 70 percent of infections resulting in death during 2014. With many cases in Sierra Leone potentially going unreported, the real figure is likely to be much higher.
Between September 2014 and February 2015, more than 1,500 treatment beds were introduced in Ebola holding centers and community care centers, and a further 1,200 in Ebola treatment units, to support the overstretched health system in Sierra Leone.
Using mathematical models, Kucharski and colleagues estimated the potential impact treatment beds had in bringing about the decline of the Ebola outbreak. They separated out the effect of beds from other factors that reduced transmission, such as behavior change, community engagement, improved case finding and increase in safe burials.
Taking into account both reported and presumed unreported cases, the researchers said 57,000 Ebola cases were prevented up to February 2015 as a direct result of the introduction of treatment beds.
Given that the Ebola case fatality rate in Sierra Leone was near 70 percent, the researchers estimated this averted 40,000 deaths.
However, they estimated that had the beds been introduced just one month earlier, an additional 12,500 reported and unreported cases could have prevented.
Beginning in December 2013, the world's largest-ever Ebola epidemic primarily affected Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone in West Africa. Liberia has recently been declared Ebola free, while Guinea and Sierra Leone have very few cases left.
The findings were published this week in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
