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World Bank warns emerging economies of big capital outflow under Fed rate hike

English.news.cn   2015-09-16 10:07:56

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 (Xinhua) -- The World Bank Tuesday warned of the risk of a large decline in capital flows to emerging economies in the upcoming U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle.

If the tightening cycle were accompanied by a surge in U.S. long-term yields, as happened during the taper tantrum in 2013, the reduction in capital flows to emerging economies could be substantial, according to a new research paper released by the World Bank ahead of this week's meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve to discuss whether to raise interest rates.

Its research shows a 100 basis point jump in U.S. long-term yields, as occurred during the taper tantrum, could temporarily reduce aggregate capital flows to the emerging markets by up to 2.2 percentage points of their combined gross domestic product (GDP).

Although the paper expected the tightening cycle might be smooth, it still runs a risk of being associated with market volatility, in view of the global economy that is adjusted to weakening growth prospects, slowing international trade and persistently lower commodities prices.

"Risk are compounded by recent spikes in volatility in global financial markets and deteriorating growth prospects in developing economies," said Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank's Development Prospects Group.

"An abrupt change in risk appetite for emerging market assets could become contagious and affect capital flows to many countries," Kose said.

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U.S. Fed officials see conditions for monetary policy tightening approaching

WASHINGTON, Aug. 19 (Xinhua) -- Most U.S. Federal Reserve (officials) believed conditions for tightening monetary policy were approaching, but failed to give clear signals on the timing of the first interest rate hike in nearly nine years.

"Most (Fed officials) judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point," according to the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on July 28 and 29 which are published on Wednesday. Full story

U.S. economy on steady growth track: Yellen

WASHINGTON, July 15 (Xinhua) -- The Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates later this year, as most Fed officials expect the economy to continue to gain growth momentum over the remainder of this year, said Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday.

In her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, Yellen said the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body, expects the economy to strengthen over the remainder of this year and the unemployment rate to decline gradually. Full story

Failure to ratify IMF reforms to harm U.S. influence: Treasury Secretary

WASHINGTON, March 17 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Tuesday warned of the risk for eroded U.S. role in international institutions if Congress failed to ratify reforms of related institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The United States is the only country standing in the way of the IMF reforms, adding that the reforms are the best way to maintain the U.S. leadership role in the IMF to protect the U.S. economic and national security interests, Lew said in his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Full sotry

Editor: xuxin
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World Bank warns emerging economies of big capital outflow under Fed rate hike

English.news.cn 2015-09-16 10:07:56

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 (Xinhua) -- The World Bank Tuesday warned of the risk of a large decline in capital flows to emerging economies in the upcoming U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle.

If the tightening cycle were accompanied by a surge in U.S. long-term yields, as happened during the taper tantrum in 2013, the reduction in capital flows to emerging economies could be substantial, according to a new research paper released by the World Bank ahead of this week's meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve to discuss whether to raise interest rates.

Its research shows a 100 basis point jump in U.S. long-term yields, as occurred during the taper tantrum, could temporarily reduce aggregate capital flows to the emerging markets by up to 2.2 percentage points of their combined gross domestic product (GDP).

Although the paper expected the tightening cycle might be smooth, it still runs a risk of being associated with market volatility, in view of the global economy that is adjusted to weakening growth prospects, slowing international trade and persistently lower commodities prices.

"Risk are compounded by recent spikes in volatility in global financial markets and deteriorating growth prospects in developing economies," said Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank's Development Prospects Group.

"An abrupt change in risk appetite for emerging market assets could become contagious and affect capital flows to many countries," Kose said.

Related:

U.S. Fed officials see conditions for monetary policy tightening approaching

WASHINGTON, Aug. 19 (Xinhua) -- Most U.S. Federal Reserve (officials) believed conditions for tightening monetary policy were approaching, but failed to give clear signals on the timing of the first interest rate hike in nearly nine years.

"Most (Fed officials) judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point," according to the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting on July 28 and 29 which are published on Wednesday. Full story

U.S. economy on steady growth track: Yellen

WASHINGTON, July 15 (Xinhua) -- The Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates later this year, as most Fed officials expect the economy to continue to gain growth momentum over the remainder of this year, said Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday.

In her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, Yellen said the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body, expects the economy to strengthen over the remainder of this year and the unemployment rate to decline gradually. Full story

Failure to ratify IMF reforms to harm U.S. influence: Treasury Secretary

WASHINGTON, March 17 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Tuesday warned of the risk for eroded U.S. role in international institutions if Congress failed to ratify reforms of related institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The United States is the only country standing in the way of the IMF reforms, adding that the reforms are the best way to maintain the U.S. leadership role in the IMF to protect the U.S. economic and national security interests, Lew said in his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Full sotry

[Editor: huaxia]
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