by Xinhua writers Yu Maofeng, Song Zongli

    KIEV, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Ukraine is to hold a presidential election on Sunday, the first since the 2004 "Orange Revolution" that swept pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko to power.

Pre-election posters of presidential candidates Viktor Yanukovich (R) and Viktor Yushchenko are seen in central Kiev January 15, 2010. A total of 18 candidates are taking part in Ukraine's presidential election on Sunday, including President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Premier and opposition leader Yanukovich. No candidate is expected to win the first round outright. However, Yanukovich and Tymoshenko are widely seen as likely to face each other in a run-off on February 7.(Xinhua Photo) Photo Gallery>>>

    The poll is not only a presidential race but also a contest for control over the government and parliament, which will lead to drastic changes in Ukraine's domestic and foreign policies, analysts say.     

    TWO FRONT-RUNNERS

    A total of 18 candidates stand ready for the election, including President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Parliament Speaker Vladimir Litvin, Regions Party leader Viktor Yanukovych, Change Front head Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and Sergei Tigipko, leader of Labor Party, according to the Ukrainian CentralElection Commission.

    Opinion polls show there will be no outright winner in the first round. Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, who are well ahead of rivals in the polls, are expected to go forward to a second round scheduled for Feb. 7.

    Yanukovych is on course to garner the most ballots in the Jan. 17 election with his poll rating at 25-32 percent. The veteran politician promises Ukrainians economic revival, creation of new jobs, pay raises, judicial reforms and duty-free policies for small enterprises for five years.

    Polls show 15-20 percent support Yanukovych's main challenger Tymoshenko, a former Yushchenko ally. While giving priority to a fair society and government efficiency, Tymoshenko also pledges a reform of economic structure driven by innovation as well as improvement in people's welfare.

Ukraine's Prime Minister and presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko speaks during a news conference in Kiev January 14, 2010.  (Xinhua Photo) Photo Gallery>>>

    Despite Yanukovych's leading position, Tymoshenko's extraordinary political skill makes it difficult to predict the election results, and other contenders' attitude will be crucial to the likely run-off vote, analysts say.     

    CHALLENGES ABOUND

    Ukraine's president, government and parliament have been wrestling with each other since the "Orange Revolution." The squabbling within the parliament, among others, has been the root cause of Ukraine's political turbulence. Whoever wins, a new president will face the daunting task to knock the intricate relationships into shape.

    There are speculations that Yanukovych and Tymoshenko might reach a compromise after they both enter the next round, with Tymoshenko taking the post of prime minister under a presidency of Yanukovych.

    However, analysts say such an idea is highly unlikely to come true given the longstanding disputes between their parties. Yanukovych has publicly heaped scorn on the speculations.

    The Ukrainian parliament has expanded and the power of the president shrunk since parliament-presidential regimes were forged in the country on Jan. 1, 2006, under amendments to the constitution. However, there have been no clear rules for Kiev's political games and the president still plays a key role in politics.

    Andrei Ermolaev, a Ukrainian political observer, said the election will have a great impact on the evolution of Ukraine's political forces as both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko boast a solid base in parliament. Whoever wins between the two will achieve dominance over parliament.

    Yanukovych is certain to overhaul the cabinet once he comes to power, analysts say. If Yanukovych does not dismiss the existing parliament in advance of the next parliamentary election, his Regions Party will try to overthrow the current coalition and forma new one with other parties.

    Apparently, taking advantage of his victory to dissolve parliament will be more beneficial to Yanukovych and his party. But the implementation of the blueprint is restricted by the ongoing economic crisis.

    If Tymoshenko becomes president, she will spare no effort to maintain political stability. Instead of dismissing parliament anytime soon, she is likely to reshuffle the cabinet on a small scale and sack ministers in support of Yushchenko.     

    WEST VS RUSSIA

    In 2004, Yushchenko won an unprecedented third round of voting after mass protests against alleged electoral fraud resulted in victory being denied to the Kremlin-backed Yanukovych.

    However, Yushchenko suffered a sharp decline in domestic support during his tenure due to a number of issues, ranging from his pursuit of NATO membership and anti-Russian policies, to excessive focus on historical issues such as the alleged deaths from starvation of several million Ukrainians in the 1930s under Soviet leader Josef Stalin.

    Opinion polls show the West-leaning president has little chance of winning a second term in office.

    Victory for either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko will see significant improvement of the Ukrainian-Russian relations, analysts say.

    Yanukovych seeks balanced, mutual beneficial and friendly foreign policies, while Tymoshenko eyes potential for economic cooperation with Russia and other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States and insists referendum be held on Ukraine's accession into collective security.

    Anyone but Yushchenko wins will be favorable to Russia. On the one hand, Moscow has kept in close touch with Yanukovych, who has never hidden his pro-Russian stand; on the other hand, Russia's cooperation with Tymoshenko's cabinet has been enhanced remarkably over the past year.

    In particular, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with Tymoshenko in Yalta last November, agreed to a lower volume of gas supplies to Ukraine in 2010 taking into account Ukraine's economic turmoil.

    Putin also promised not to levy fines on Ukraine for importing less gas than that set out in contracts signed earlier between the two former Soviet neighbors. In a sign of their warm relationship, Putin said he found "it comfortable to work with the government of Tymoshenko."

    Analysts forecast a slowdown in Ukraine's bid for NATO membership and a thaw in the Ukraine-Russia ties after the presidential election. But the east European country struggling with an economic downturn is hungry for assistance and support from the West.

    Therefore, it is generally believed that a new president will cement ties with Russia and at the same time maintain cooperation with the European Union and the United States.