HONG KONG, Jan. 6 (Xinhua) -- A number of Hong Kong-based analysts said on Wednesday that the probability of a double-dip recession in the global economy was low, citing indicators showing recovery may be now well on track.

    It was an obvious improvement from even the most recent views held by many that the global economy may slip again later this year.

    Catherine Cheung, head of investment strategy and research of Citibank Global Consumer Group, said there were signs that economic recovery was now on track.

    "Even the United States housing market, which has been hit hardest in the crisis, has been stabilizing," she said, adding that Citibank expected the first rate hike in the United States in the fourth quarter.

    Citibank projected a growth of 3.2 percent for the global economy in 2010 in its latest forecasts, followed by 3.4 percent in 2011. The emerging economies were forecast to grow by 5.7 percent in 2010, compared with 2.1 percent for the industrial countries.

    Nevertheless, there are still potential risks to the global recovery, including early exit from the stimulus measures, policy risks and a volatile U.S. dollar, Cheung said.

    David Lui, vice chairman of Schroder Investment Management ( Hong Kong) Limited, said the probability of a double-dip recession was not high, given that central banks typically will not start rate hikes until 4-6 months after the unemployment rate has peaked.

    Many countries would prefer slight overheating to a double-dip recession, although some are worried that early exit from the stimulus measures might trigger a slump in asset prices to nip the nascent recovery in the bud, Lui said.

    T C Chan, consultant of the Bank of East Asia, also agreed that the probability of a double-dip recession in the global economy was not high, nevertheless he warned against potential risks.

    Money could flow out of Hong Kong in the case of strong economic recovery in the United States and Europe, he said.

Special Report:  Global Financial Crisis