by Wang Xiuqiong, Zheng Jinfa

    ANKARA, Dec. 29 (Xinhua) -- Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is seen in a strong position to push ahead with its reform to expand rights for the Kurdish minority and end decades of the armed conflict between the Turkish government and the outlawed Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK).

    Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast has seen protests and street clashes between Kurds and the Turkish security forces since the country's Constitutional Court banned the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) on Dec. 11.

    Latest protests erupted over the weekend after the arrest of dozens of DTP members last week on charges of links to an urban arm of the PKK. Local media reported protestors threw stones and firebombs at police.

    Following the incidents, cabinet members and top army leaders said in a statement released after a meeting on Monday that they would continue to fight terrorism with determination, urging citizens to "avoid attitudes that would hurt the brotherhood."

    Turkish analysts said the AKP will still advance its reform plan, dubbed the "democratic initiative," and is likely to thread the needle despite the unrest, because of general public demand for a solution to the long-standing Kurdish issue and the party's political strength.

    "They (the protests) were last-ditch efforts by the PKK... If the government goes on with what they have in mind, Turkey will not be divided," said Metin Heper, a professor of political science at Bilkent University in the Turkish capital of Ankara.

    The attraction for a Kurdistan state in southeast Turkey, which has been sought by the PKK, is diminishing among Kurds as Turkey emerges as a regional power with good ties with both its neighbors and major countries in the world, Heper told Xinhua.

    Kurds in Turkey have been complaining about scant cultural rights and harsh treatment by the security forces. The democratic initiative, which was first announced in July, included such moves as removing restrictions on Kurdish language use and establishing a national mechanism to prevent torture.

    The government has said the initiative was aimed at eroding support for the PKK by giving Kurds more rights. Listed as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the EU, the PKK has filed an armed campaign for independence for the past 25 years that led to more than 40,000 deaths.

    Ihsan Bal, director of Center for Security Studies at the International Strategic Research Organization, a think tank in Ankara, said the DTP failed to distance itself with the PKK as the government and the EU demanded.

    During the country's last general elections held in 2007, the DTP received around one-fourth of the votes of Kurds, who make up about 20 percent of Turkey's population of over 72 million, while more Kurds voted for the AKP, Bal told Xinhua.

    Nineteen DTP deputies who remained in the parliament after the party's closure have joined the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), which is considered a back-up party for the DTP.

    "They (the BDP) can also be closed down if they can't distinguish themselves from the PKK or try to legitimize the PKK's violent activities... if they learn (the lesson), they'll exist and become a bigger party," said Bal.

    He urged the government to take concrete reform moves to give moderate Kurds more political voices and make it harder to shut down political parties.

    The ban of the DTP has been feared of adding uncertainty to there form and widely criticized by international community as threatening to deprive Kurds of political representation. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he was against the closure of political parties.

    ELECTORAL RISKS

    The closure of the DTP and arrest of some DTP members suspected of links with the PKK would help the AKP's reform gain popularity instead of hampering the process, Bal argued.

    The AKP saw its leading party in the country although its approval rate slid from 39.4 percent in August while support for the reform fell on concerns the process would lead to disintegration of the country, according to a survey conducted by Turkey's MetroPOLL research company in November.

    Opposition leaders and nationalists have lashed out at the reform, accusing the AKP of negotiating with terrorism and undermining state integrity.

    Recent anti-terrorism moves would gain votes, but the government must speed up legal work to implement the reform plan without hesitation at the same time, or it could face political risks, said Bal.

    "The government must be consistent on its democratic initiative and gain the large Kurdish communities' confidence that, really and surely, Turkey is heading to a fully democratic manner in every area," he said.

    With economic woes yet to be healed, the AKP could lose strength in the next general elections in mid-2011 if it continues to handle the reform in an unsatisfactory way, Bal warned.

    However, Heper said Turkey's opposition parties were unlikely to win the next elections as they were still too weak to offer better policy alternatives than the ruling party did, hence there would be political stability for the reform process.

    "Past election results have shown people in the country do not vote for a political party just because it's Islamist or nationalist, but for what policies it offers," he said.

    RIFT WITH MILITARY?

    Heper said he was optimistic about the prospects of the reform also because the government holds a key to the reform's success, that is support of the military, which used to insist a solution to the Kurdish issue could only be achieved through military operations.

    "Now the military changed its position. They came to the conclusion that apart from repression of terrorism, you also need other measures," he said.

    Turkey's Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug told media in August while the military would continue to crack down on terrorism, it was important for the government to take measures in economic and social and cultural areas to eradicate terrorism.

    Tensions were suspected between the Islamist-rooted AKP and the military after a probe unveiled last week into an alleged plot by military officers to assassinate Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc.

    Prime Minister Erdogan has denied conflicts between state institutions, saying mistakes of individuals should not be viewed as the actions of an institution.

    Heper said a shift in the military's role should be observed, noting Basbug has refrained from making public declarations about government policies other than security issues since coming into power and started a new practice of meeting the prime minister every week.

    "The military has come to have trust in the civilian government. It didn't have that trust before," he said.

    Turkey's military has viewed itself as a guardian of secular values and has four coups since 1960.