World weathers financial storm with expected sunshine ahead
www.chinaview.cn 2009-12-22 11:06:18   Print

    by Xinhua writers Liu Si, Yu Zhixiao, Ding Yi

    BEIJING, Dec. 22 (Xinhua) -- If a country in 2009, in its economic sense, is likened to an aircraft carrier arduously sailing forward in the global financial storm, then a company is like a warplane on board and every citizen is like a sailor.

    Over the past year, every "sailor," "warplane" and "aircraft carrier" across the world have been breaking their necks to pull out of the financial crisis, the worst since World War II, and now the sun seemingly is on the horizon despite some lingering clouds.     

    PEOPLE: TAKING THE GOOD WITH THE BAD

    At lunchtime on a winter day, a 39-year-old Japanese office worker was choosing his lunch at a crowded convenience store in downtown Tokyo. He first picked up a box lunch priced at 598 yen (6.7 U.S. dollars) but put it back after second thoughts. Then he took up a 550-yen (6.1 dollars) one but again returned it. At last, he decided on a 480-yen (5.4 dollars) lunch and went to the cashier.

    "I used to have lunch at the restaurants nearby and it would cost 800 yen (9 dollars)," said the guy who would only give his name as Nakagawa in front of a microwave oven while heating his box lunch. "But now, I will spend no more than 500 yen (5.6 dollars) on lunch."

    Throwing a slice of pickle into his mouth, the office worker said, "I got only 30,000 yen (336.7 dollars) from my wife as pocket money during recent months while it used to be 50,000 (561.2 dollars) yen last year."

    After finishing off all the food in the box, Nakagawa waved and rose to leave in a hurry.

    "I had to finish my day's work before off-duty time because the boss asked employees to avoid working overtime as much as they could to reduce the company's expenditure," he explained before quickly disappearing into the street.

    Meanwhile, on the opposite coast of the Pacific, the global economic downturn has affected many Americans' lives, especially those who lost their jobs.

    Steven Nylon, an engineer at one of the U.S. Big Three automakers, General Motors (GM), told Xinhua in Detroit recently that he was totally "shocked" when he was unexpectedly laid off last March.

    Forcing an uneasy smile, Nylon, a father of two children, said," Right now, I spend more time looking for a job than I used to spend working every day. This kind of day, without any achievement, is unbearable."

    Lifestyle adjustments were inevitable. Nylon's wife, Stephanie, who had stayed at home to take care of their children since the birth of their first child, recently began looking for a job.

    The Nylons are also considering downsizing to a smaller home to reduce their mortgage, real estate tax and maintenance expenses.

    Nevertheless, coming into this challenging holiday season, Nylon has a much better attitude toward these unexpected changes in his life. No longer angry or depressed, he is taking every opportunity to enjoy life and prepare for future.

    "This week, I just downloaded a 3D model software to upgrade my knowledge base. I also cooked dinner for my wife and kids today and did a large basket of laundry."

    Like Nylon, Michael Balboa, a former fund manager in London, also holds a positive attitude, and moreover, perceives new opportunities from the financial crisis.

    After being stuck in the mud of the bear market like most investors, Balboa discovered a potentially large market in consulting to banks on how to deal with the mass of non-performing assets and established an assets management company with his partners in March.

    "I found the new opportunities quickly," he said. "I just thought through the crisis by changing my angle."

    Under the context of the global economic recovery, the company has carried out its business in London, New York and Singapore.

    Instead of being depressed like most investors, Balboa said with a smile that he would probably go to Spain to enjoy the sunshine with his family this Christmas holiday.     

    COMPANIES: HOPE AND FEAR

    While Nylon was struggling for his living during his lay-off, his former employer, GM, has sought a fresh start after a six- week journey through bankruptcy.

    A popular "Cash for Clunkers" scheme by the Barack Obama administration this summer helped boost the U.S. auto industry. The program offered a rebate of up to 4,500 dollars to buy new cars and trade in old gas guzzlers. GM was among the beneficiaries of that with increased car sales.

    Nonetheless, worries clouded the sustainability of the sector's recovery when the government's stimulus policies ended. After the Cash for Clunkers program came to an end in August, U.S. auto sales fell accordingly.

    The auto industry is just a tip of the iceberg amid the economic winter. The housing-related industry was also hard hit by the global financial crisis.

    In Britain, Markus Arkermann, chief executive director of British construction materials manufacturer Holcim, told Xinhua that total output in construction had fallen 15 percent since the outbreak of the crisis.

    Both the commercial and residential markets were shrinking in the crisis, despite government stimulus measures, he said.

    Unlike Arkermann, Ian Tyler from Balfour Beatty Construction is in a good mood, the chief executive saying his business has been rising thanks to its focus on the government's infrastructure projects.

    As people were starting to see signs of recovery in the world economy, their hopes took a dent when a debt crunch in Dubai in late November pricked the property bubble in the emirate. Figures from Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank show house prices in Dubai, both commercial and residential, have halved since August 2008.

    Harboring both hope and fear, business people are expecting warmth while still feeling chilly.

    For instance, in France a large government stimulus package for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and start-ups has helped the industrial production achieve a steady recovery. Orders were increasing and business activities saw a strong gain, though at a comparatively slow pace.

    However, a recent survey by French financial daily La Tribune showed two-thirds of SMEs in the country still felt the pressure of the recession and one out of five were considering more job cuts in order to offset business loss.

    Most of them preferred holding off or cutting investments in what they thought unnecessary facilities and research before the overall economic recovery is assured, said the survey.

    Nevertheless, a crisis could serve as an opportunity for companies to review themselves and seek a way out, said Thomas Mademann, executive vice president of German company Hoechst Procurement International (HPI).

    Companies should take the opportunity to explore new channels and ways to increase their competitiveness in the market, he said.

    HPI has been active in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China, where the company could find satisfactory prices and lower its costs, he said, adding that made HPI competitive in the economic downturn.

    Arkermann, from Holcim, is seeking opportunities in the crisis, saying his company would do more business in China, where the housing market is booming. People in the construction sector like him were expecting a recovery in 2011, he said.

    Brazil's H-Buster, which specializes in car stereos, is another example of a company that has successfully weathered the economic recession and developed more business thanks to its trade exchanges with China.

    H-Buster has worked with Chinese partners Haier and Konka to develop new products like auto GPS systems and high-definition TVs, said He Xing, president of the company.

    He said demand for HDTVs would rise in the future, with Brazil to host the 2014 football World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games.

    "Our imports from China were not affected by the economic crisis; instead, the volume increased by nearly 30 percent," he said, adding "China could help us develop our business."

    COUNTRIES: BITTERSWEET ECONOMY

    Every country throughout the world, like every citizen and company, is also combating the sweeping financial crisis.

    The prospects for the global economy are becoming increasingly bright, but threats remain.

    Hong Pingfan, chief for global economic monitoring of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), told Xinhua recently that "the world economy is climbing out of the financial crisis step by step. But in 2010, the world will encounter a lot of difficulties in promoting continuous economic recovery."

    Despite the fact that the world economic situation has been on the mend since the second quarter of this year, the world gross product (WGP) is estimated to fall by 2.2 percent for 2009, its first drop since the end of World War II, he said.

    Rising unemployment rates, inflation, the rising trend of trade protectionism and global imbalances posed grave challenges for the continuous economic rebound in the world, he added.

    Meanwhile, Fred Bergsten, director of U.S. think-tank the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said, "I'm quite optimistic about the outlook of the U.S. economy over the next year or so. I think we'll go up about 4 percent through 2010."

    "There will be some good news and bad news at different points of time, but I think the basic trend is clearly upward," he said.

    The United States would lead the world recovery, but not as dramatically as China, Bergsten said, adding the two countries together were injecting major stimulus into the global economy.

    Earlier this month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) upgraded the growth forecast for the Asian economy in 2009 from 3.9 percent to 4.5 percent as monetary and fiscal policies helped the region recover.

    The ADB also lifted its forecast for the region in 2010 from 6.4 percent to 6.6 percent.

    China and India, the world's fastest growing economies, would lead the region's recovery, it said.

    It predicted China would grow 8.2 percent in 2009 and 8.9 percent in 2010, while India would grow 7 percent in 2009.

    In Japan, Toyoo Gyohten, president of the Institute for International Monetary Affairs, said many countries had implemented stimulus plans to boost their economies and, as a result, financial markets had taken a turn for the better.

    "Compared with financial markets, it takes much longer for real economies to show signs of improvement," he said.

    Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) was likely to shrink by some 10 percent this year, said Alexander Nekipelov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

    The Russian economy had shown signs of a slow recovery recently, but the indication was weak and unstable, he said, adding it would take the country more time to escape the crisis than others.

    As for China, Nekipelov said the country had recorded impressive growth during the global financial turmoil.

    China, as the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, did not stick to doctrines and had spent part of its massive reserves on investment, he noted.

    China undoubtedly was playing an important role in the global economy's comeback, he said.

Special report: Yearender 2009

Editor: Lin Zhi
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