By Dan Ran, Liu Ying
NAIROBI, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- As the global economy begins to show signs of recovery, Africa's is also struggling to pull through the downturn. It is expected, however, that the continent's revival may lag behind their counterparts, just as it felt the hit of the global financial crisis some time later than the rest of the world.
In general, Africa's economy experienced a major setback this year, but can hope for buoyancy in the year to come.
SLOWER GROWTH IN 2009
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October lowered its forecast for Africa's economic growth this year to 1.7 percent from 2 percent it projected in April, a sharp fall from the average of 6 percent in the past five years.
The concern was echoed by other organizations. In the African Economic Outlook 2009 jointly issued in May by the African Development Bank, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the continent's economy was expected to expand by 2.8 percent this year, less than half of the pre-crisis projection of 5.7 percent.
Meanwhile, UNECA and the African Union said in May in their Economic Report on Africa 2009 that in view of the decimated export and the global price fall of raw materials, Africa would only record a 2-percent growth this year.
On the individual level, front runner South Africa's economy will fall into its first recession in 17 years. It is predicted to contract 1.5 percent by the World Bank and 2.2 percent by the IMF.
In oil-rich economies like Nigeria, Angola and Equatorial Guinea, the economy will suffer from dramatic decline of oil revenue. Nigeria is expected to record a 2.9-percent growth this year, down from 6 percent in 2008, while Angola also cut its 2009 GDP growth forecast to 1.3 percent from the initial 6.2 percent.
In Africa, the financial and economic crisis has taken the toughest toll on diamond-rich Botswana and the tourist country Seychelles. Declined global demand for diamond dragged Botswana's economy into a severe contraction of 10.3 percent, while the depressed tourism industry cost Seychelles a 8.7-percent drop in this year's GDP.
BUMPY ROAD TOWARDS RECOVERY
The IMF has warned of weakness and uncertainty of the African economy, pointing out that many developed countries that fell victim to the financial and economy crisis may cut their aid to Africa. As a result, deteriorating poverty and unemployment problems await some south African countries, which would in turn add to the region's social instability.
Meanwhile, natural disasters such as the severe drought and flood in east Africa together with the ensuing regional food crisis were also indicating a bumpy road towards economic revival.
African Development Bank President Donald Kaberuka said in April that when the global economy begins to rebound, the continent's recovery will lag far behind the rest of the world. In view of the current situation, what he had been worried about is very likely to happen.
In South Africa, Finance Minister Pravin Gordon said in August that although the world economy seemed to have bottomed out, confidence would not return early in his country. Then governor of South Africa's Central Bank Tito Mboweni had also said that while the global economy appeared to have improved, the recovery would not be uniform across all countries and South Africa may lag the international trend.
GROWING OPTIMISM FOR BUOYANCY
Despite the bumpiness, there has been increasing optimism that the African economy will be better-off next year, with the IMF predicting that the continent will regain a 4-percent growth in 2010.
Angola's Economy Minister Manuel Nunes Junior also sees revival in the oil sector in the year to come, saying that Angola's economy can enjoy a growth of up to 8.2 percent next year.
In Kenya, the economy has survived the triple blow of the post-election violence in 2008, the prolonged drought as well as the global recession, and is now showing signs of recovery, according to the Kenya Economic Report 2009 issued in October. It was predicted that the largest economy in east Africa would grow by between 2 percent to 2.5 percent this year and a further 3.9 percent in 2010.
Seeing an even more promising prospect, Mauritius' Central Bankgovernor Rundheersing Bheenick said in October that "the dark cloud that were hanging over Africa earlier this year have rapidly dissipated", and that the prospects are brightening rapidly for most member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.
"We believe Africa is headed in the right direction," said Bheenick.
