by Yangtze Yan

    ISLAMABAD, Dec. 2 (Xinhua) -- Pakistani experts said here Wednesday that the renewed U.S. strategy on Afghanistan, in which U.S. President Barack Obama announced a 30,000 troop increase and an exit time frame, has serious implications for Pakistan.

    Security analyst Humayun Qazi told Xinhua that with the military surge in Afghanistan the Taliban fighters, in order to get relief, will cross over the uncontrollable porose border from Afghanistan to the tribal areas of Pakistan where they have enjoyed safe heavens since long.

    "This could lead to hot pursuit by the U.S. into Pakistani territory creating difficulties in our complex relationship with America," Qazi said, "U.S. will increase its pressure on Pakistan to do more."

    He said Pakistan has deployed over 100,000 troops in the counter insurgency operations in Swat and South Waziristan in the northwest and Pakistan will not be able to take on this task.

    Qazi, also a former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan, said the Pakistan Taliban who have links with Afghan Taliban will increase the pressure on the government and the public by sending more suicide bombers and by target killing of the military and police personnel.

    With dwindling support internationally and domestically, Qazi said the Obama administration was under pressure to immediately contain the escalating insurgency and come up with an exit strategy. Equally significant is the fact that Obama had to honor his election pledge of bringing the war in Afghanistan to an end, he said.

    The former ambassador said the declared policy is a military surge, a political surge and a long-term partnership with Pakistan beyond the end of the insurgency in Afghanistan.

    In Afghanistan, he said, it entails more aggressive military campaigns to eliminate Al-Qaeda and disarm Taliban. It will also entail considerable escalation in the war as the military has to show results in 18 months before they start pulling out, which results in death and destruction due to collateral damage.

    Qazi said the U.S. focus has shifted from counter-insurgency to counter-terrorism.

    Qazi also noted that the renewed Obama strategy does not open the window to a "political space" ultimately leading to the negotiation with the Taliban, which he considers a crucial step to break the political will of the Taliban.

    A defense analyst agreed with Qazi that the modified plan has important impact on Pakistan but he disagreed that the troop surge in Afghanistan would drive the militants into Pakistan.

    "I don't think so. I think this move will only give another 30,000 targets to Afghan militants, the Taliban militants or Al-Qaeda militants," Makhdoom Babar told Xinhua.

    Babar, the editor-in-chief of the Pakistani newspaper Daily Mail, said that sending more troops is no solution to peace in Afghanistan.

    He said the United States should come up with more diplomatic packages and more economic packages to address the Afghan problem. He said they should create stability in Afghanistan by investing in Afghanistan, by creating job opportunities for the Afghan people who are with the Taliban because of joblessness, because of poverty.

    "First of all the Americans should try to develop their image in Afghanistan that they are not conquerors, they are not invaders, they just want peace, they want that this part of the world should be no more a nursery for militancy or terrorism," he said.

Special Report: Pakistani Situation