Obama to make tough sell for his pending Afghan troop decision
www.chinaview.cn 2009-11-25 00:35:27   Print

    by Xinhua Writer Yang Qingchuan

    WASHINGTON, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to announce decision on a pending buildup of U.S. troops Afghanistan "within days", preparing for a tough sale for the increasingly unpopular war.

    

    "WITHIN DAYS"

    "After completing a rigorous final meeting, President Obama has the information he wants and needs to make his decision and he will announce that decision within days," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement emailed to reporters Tuesday.

    "Cost is a concern, " he added.

    Meanwhile, U.S. media are reporting that the president will probably announce the decision with an address to the nation next Tuesday, Dec. 1, likely in prime time.

    In addition, Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan, and Karl Eikenberry, the U.S ambassador to Afghanistan are going to testify before Congress on Afghan strategy next week, U.S. media quoted official source as saying, also indicating when Obama will announce his troop decision.

    Both of them were said to be told that their testimony would quickly follow Obama's announcement, so that they could offer details and support for the president's strategy for how to proceed the prolonged war.

    Besides McChrystal and Eikenberry, other senior administration officials linked to the Afghan strategy are also likely to appear before Congress next week.

    Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will not be attending next week's meeting of foreign ministers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates also has not announced plans to travel next week.

    Analysts said Obama would probably make the announcement early next week because he is scheduled to attend a "jobs summit" at the White House on Dec. 3 and plans to travel to Allentown, Pa., to talk about jobs and the economy.

    

    THREE OPTIONS

    Although the exact content of the decision remains unclear, but Obama is widely expected by analysts, media and officials to announce an increase of 10,000 to 40,000 troops in Afghanistan.

    Analysts at the New York Times said under the current circumstances, the president is probably weighing three options.

    U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen have coalesced around a plan to send 30,000 or more troops to Afghanistan, which is called the middle option.

    U.S. Vice President Joe Biden advocates a plan calling for sending the lowest level of additional troops -- 10,000 to 15,000.That is the low option.

    The high option calls for 40,000 additional troops, which was outlined by Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan.

    Obama probably will announce the new strategy in the first week of December and he is expected to meet his war council this afternoon.

    Should he decide to send 40,000 additional troops, the military would have enormous flexibility to deploy as many as 15,000 forces to the Taliban center of gravity in the south, 5,000 to the critical eastern border with Pakistan and 10,000 as trainers for the Afghan security forces, analysts said.

    The rest could be deployed across the country, including to the NATO headquarters in Kabul, the capital, and in clandestine operations.

    If the president limited any additional American troops to 10,000 to 15,000, the military would deploy them largely as trainers, with some reinforcements likely in the southern province of Kandahar, the Taliban's "spiritual home".

    It would focus on eliminating al-Qaida leadership in Pakistan through drone attacks.

    Under the middle option, there might be 5,000 trainers rather than 10,000, and fewer troops to spread across the country, although there would still be a concentration in the south.

    Quoting official sources, latest media reports said the president would announce an increase of 20,000 to 40,000 additional troops in Afghanistan, which will be a victory for McChrystal who has been calling for a substantial buildup of U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

    However, the White House is trying to deflect the public focus on troop numbers, saying Obama plans to stress not just the troop number, but also other elements of a comprehensive strategy, including development assistance, more aggressive set of demands on the Afghan government and new steps that the U.S. hopes the Pakistanis will take.

    

    TOUGH SELL

    The administration made it clear in recent statements that Obama wants not only a way to get more troops in but a clear sense of how he would get them out.

    "He still needs to know not just how we get people there, but how we get people out," Gibbs said on Monday, prior to the final meeting between Obama and his national security team on Afghanistan.

    Analysts said as the public is turning negative toward the Afghan war and his fellow Democrats are increasingly vocal in their opposition to a troop buildup in Afghanistan, Obama will have a tough time to sell his pending decision at home.

    A new ABC News/Washington Post poll found Americans narrowly oppose a troop buildup in Afghanistan, with some of the strongest opposition coming from Obama's own party.

    According to the survey, 47 percent of those surveyed favor a substantial buildup of U.S. forces while 49 percent oppose it.

    Among the president's fellow Democrats, only a third favor sending about 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan, with 61 percent opposed.

    Confidence in Obama's handling of the Afghan war has eroded since the spring with 45 percent approving of his job performance on the issue, down 10 percentage from that of the past month.

    Joseph A. Palermo, a historian at the South California State University, pointed out recently that no matter what kind of decision Obama will make on Afghanistan, Americans are going to pay a heavier price for the war, and that is why the war is growingly less popular in the United States.

    Since the president announced an increase of 21,000 troops in Afghanistan at the beginning of his presidency, U.S. war casualties there spiked.

    Thomas Sanderson, Deputy Director of the Transnational Threats Project at Washington thinktank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in an recent interview that greater input of troops into Afghanistan will surely lead to more U.S. war deaths.

    Any buildup to be announced by the president will be added to the 68,000 troops who are already in Afghanistan.

    Pentagon's own estimate said sending every 1,000 more troops to Afghanistan will add one billion U.S. dollars to war costs.

    In other words, Obama's pending decision probably means another 10 to 40 billions dollars to be spent on the Afghan war, which has entered its 9th year.

    U.S. officials conceded costs are a sensitive issue at Obama's meetings with his war council on Afghanistan during past three months, given the country is still not out of the woods of the financial crisis and is expected to launch big-spending projects such as the health care reform.

    Reflecting that concern, senior House Democrats are proposing a graduated surtax on individuals and corporations to pay for the Afghan war, but that is not likely to be a popular proposal among heavily-burdened U.S. taxpayers. 

Editor: Mu Xuequan
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