by David Harris
JERUSALEM, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) -- After 10-month chilly ties, Israel hopes its relationship with Turkey is finally getting back on track.
Israel's Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer is in Ankara this week for high-level talks. He is accompanied by some 45 Israeli business leaders who are meeting their Turkish counterparts.
Ben-Eliezer has been speaking positively of his meetings with government officials in Ankara, but analysts told Xinhua there is little room for optimism at this stage.
UP AND DOWN
Relations had been on the up and up for more than a decade, with trade booming between the countries that both sit on the Mediterranean and are an hour's plane journey apart.
Bilateral trade stands at about 3 billion U.S. dollars and Turkey has been a hot destination for Israeli holidaymakers for several years.
However, on the diplomatic front there has been concern in Israel since Turkish July 2007 general election in which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) took more than 46 percent of the vote, with far more Turks voting for it than previously.
The AKP has its roots in Islam and that led Israel to fear Ankara would begin to ally itself more with the Arab and Muslim worlds than with the West.
When Israel launched its major military operation in and around Gaza last winter, Turkey was amongst its loudest critics.
Israel was particularly offended by repeated comments from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke of what he saw as the crimes committed by Israel in Gaza. He called for Israel to be banned from the United Nations.
These and other criticisms by Turkish politicians have left Israel more isolated than it has been for years in the Middle East and Israeli cabinet ministers have been questioning whether Turkey really can be a regional peacemaker for them.
In 2008 Ankara was acting as interlocutor in indirect talks between Syria and Israel, which broke off after the Gaza war. Despite its criticisms of Israel, Turkey has recently made the offer to resume that role. That suggestion was rejected outright by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, while a month ago Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he did not believe Turkey could be "an honest broker."
Despite all of that, Ben-Eliezer has been very upbeat during this week's visit. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was also positive about Israeli-Turkish ties when he spoke to the media on Monday alongside his Israeli guest.
Davutoglu spoke of the good relationship between the countries and repeated Ankara's offer to mediate between Syria and Israel.
PESSIMISM AMONG ANALYSTS
"I don't think there's been any significant change. The fact of meetings with Davutoglu and (Turkish President Abdullah) Gul is excellent, but Ben-Eliezer is a minister of economics and is a member of the Labor Party," said Alon Liel, a former Israeli ambassador to Ankara and a previous director general of Israeli Foreign Ministry.
The Labor Party is a dovish junior member of the Netanyahu government and Ben-Eliezer does not hold a diplomatic portfolio.
He has reportedly asked Ankara to begin working the Syrian track once again, but Liel fears "it's not the official position of the government."
Unless Ben-Eliezer is carrying a letter from Netanyahu, his visit does not bring with it any real weight, Liel said.
It is a view shared by Professor Meliha Altunisik, the head of the Department of International Relations at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara.
She said the Israeli government is clearly divided on the issue. While the hawks oppose a Turkish role, "part of the government is acting on pragmatic grounds. They're aware of the importance of relations with Turkey and they're aware that Turkey is an important regional actor."
This pragmatism not only stems from Israel's increasing isolation in the Middle East but also from growing criticism of Israel by the European Union and the United States, Altunisik added.
REAL CHANGE
Both Liel and Altunisik are of the opinion that no matter how good business ties are between Israeli and Turkish industry, there will be tension on the diplomatic front until Israel reboots peace talks with the Palestinians.
There is considerable domestic Turkish support for the Palestinians, said Altunisik, which is in part the reason for Erdogan's remarks. However, there is also a genuine belief in Turkey that Israel must relax its position towards the Palestinians and head swiftly towards a two-state solution.
One indicator of a possible thaw is likely to appear in the next couple of weeks with the possibility that the much vaunted prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas will finally take place.
The release of some 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the Israeli soldier would be welcomed in Ankara. Liel, though, does not think that alone will be sufficient.
"It will have an effect but only on the condition that it is accompanied by something on the diplomatic front," he said.
As long as there is progress in easing the plight of Palestinians in Gaza or talks commence with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, it will help on the Turkish front.
Liel sees limited room for optimism. He believes there is a small chance the prisoner deal will bring with it good news on the peace process, particularly if Israel agrees to release Marwan Barghouti, a leader of Abbas' Fatah movement. Ben-Eliezer is among those supporting the freeing of the man predicted by many to be the next Palestinian leader.
Altunisik agrees that the bilateral relationship will only improve with regional developments.
Since the AKP first came into power in 2002, relations between the countries have largely been positive, she said. However, since the fighting in Gaza last winter, Turkey has felt it necessary to speak its mind and things have not improved in the interim.
Not only does Ankara believe it has to condemn Israel and fight for the rights of Palestinians, it is also aware that making such statements helps Turkey to move closer to the Arab world, an effort that is ongoing, said Altunisik.
