By Mothusi Seretse
GABORONE, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- Botswana goes to the polls this Friday in the country's 10th general elections in which the ruling party, the Botswana Democratic party (BDP), which has been in power since 1966 is heavily expected to win.
Five other political parties are also contesting the election although only two, the Botswana National Front (BNF) and the Botswana Congress party (BCP), have posed any serious threat to the BDP in the past.
In contention, there are also the Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM), Botswana People's Party (BPP) as well as the Movement for the study of Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin (MELS).
The elections will only be held at parliamentary and local authority level as Botswana has an automatic succession system, which does not warrant presidential elections.
In the 2004 elections, there were 57 constituencies in which the BDP managed to capture 44, the BNF 12 and the BCP one.
However, analysts believe that although the tide is still very much tilted in favour of the ruling party, the opposition will perform better this time around due to the ruling party dwindling support particularly in the urban areas and bigger villages.
The infighting that has recently plagued the ruling party in the past few months will not do them any favors as the party has virtually been divided by factionalism, which ended with the President Ian Khama being dragged before the courts of law by the party Secretary General.
"I see the BDP clinging on to power this time around. This is not because the BDP has been a flourishing party, but because the opposition particularly the BNF has been so disappointing. They have also had their own fair share of internal squabbling. So I see a situation where the BCP might do better as well as the BNF, but not enough to topple the BDP," said Goitseone Ramoroka, a resident of Gaborone.
Apart from the factionalism within the ruling BDP, there is a growing sentiment among the citizens that President Khama who received power from former President Festus Mogae in April last year through the automatic succession system has been ruling the country with an iron fist.
Khama, a former soldier trained in Britain, has come under heavy criticism from the opposition as well as the media for using his brainchild, the Directorate of intelligence Services (DIS), to intimidate members of the public as well as the opposition.
"The creation of the DIS might have been for the best of reasons, but the reputation they have assumed since the formation has tended to be in the negative sense and I think this could be one of the reasons that the President and his party are losing support.
"Then the issue of appointment of military men in key senior positions has also cropped out which in the view of the public might not be that tasteful. However despite all the negative comments that the president and the party has received, still think they will win the elections convincingly," said Kenneth Sekgwa, a social scientist in private practice.
However, other analysts reckon the global nature of the recent economic crisis will also help the BDP to retain power. Due to the economic recession, diamond dependent Botswana saw GDP falling by over 20 percent at the beginning of the year while also posting a huge budget deficit for the first time in many years.
A political science lecturer at the University of Botswana said that due to the richness from diamond money that has been managed well in the past the general populace rather has been indifferent to politics.
"But things on the ground slowly changing as can be seen by the rising number of registered voters especially first time voters, who might be feeling the BDP has been in power long enough.
"The majority of the voters this time around are also the younger generation which presumably the majority of them should be living in the cities where as experience has shown the ruling party does not enjoy that much support.
"However in the end the BDP's long history particularly in the management of the diamond money to transform the country into a middle income earner should pull them through this time around," said the lecturer who did not want to be named.
In an interview with Xinhua, IEC spokesperson Mpho Maifala said that for the 2009 general elections there are 57 constituencies, 490 polling districts and 2288 internal and 26 external polling stations.
For the first time in Botswana, a record 146 independent candidates will contest for both parliamentary and council seats in the Oct. 16 general elections.
BAM has fielded three parliamentary candidates, BCP 43, making a combined 46 under the pact. BDP has fielded candidates in all the 57 constituencies; BNF has 48, BPP six and MELS four. There is also Botswana Tlhoka Tiro Party.
At local authority level Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM) has fielded 34 candidates, Botswana Congress Party (BCP) 327, Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) 490, Botswana National Front (BNF) 391, Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) 39 and MELS two.
Serowe North East are unopposed, which means that they have one foot in their respective councils.
Maifala said of the number, 14 were contesting for parliamentary seats, while the remaining 132 contests at local authority level. He said the numbers were evenly distributed across constituencies. There were only 14 independent candidates registered for the 2004 elections.
Reasons for contesting independently vary with some candidates alleging unfair primary elections, while their parties expelled others.
A record 723,617 people registered for the 2009 elections indicating a seven-percent increase compared to 2004. IEC said it had targeted 650,000 but it managed to exceed the number by 11 percent.
Just under a third (27.55 percent) of the voters are people in the ages between 21 and 29 years. The next biggest slice of the registered voter is taken up by the age bracket of 30-39 years. This makes up 23.24 percent of total voters. The two senior citizen age brackets of 60-69 years and above 70 are a minority.
