NAIROBI, Sept. 30 (Xinhua) -- Twenty-five million
more children will be malnourished in 2050 due to effects of climate change,
according to a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI).
This study, the most comprehensive assessment of the
impact of climate change on agriculture to date, says the impact of climate
change on poor people can be averted with 7 billion U.S. dollars additional
annual investments in rural development.
"This outcome could be averted with seven billion
dollars per year of additional investments in agricultural productivity to help
farmers to adapt to the effects of climate change," said Gerald Nelson, IFPRI
senior research fellow and report lead author.
Nelson said investments are needed in agricultural
research, improved irrigation, and rural roads to increase market access for
poor farmers. "Access to safe drinking water and education for girls is also
essential," he said.
The study, "Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and
Costs of Adaptation," was prepared by IFPRI for inclusion in two separate
reports from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, both released on
Wednesday in conjunction with international climate change meetings in Bangkok.
The report says that developing countries will be hit
hardest by climate change and will face bigger declines in crop yields and
production than industrialized countries, the study finds.
The negative effects of climate change are especially
pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Compared to the average biophysical effects of
climate change on yields in the industrialized world, the developing countries
fare worse for almost all crops.
"Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate
change, because farming is so weather-dependent. Small-scale farmers in
developing countries will suffer the most," noted Mark Rosegrant, director of
IFPRI's Environment and Production Technology Division and report co-author.
"However, our study finds that this scenario of lower
yields, higher prices, and increased child malnutrition can be avoided." The
report compares the number of malnourished children in 2050 with and without
climate change.
Without new technology and adjustments by farmers,
climate change will reduce irrigated wheat yields in 2050 by around 30 percent
in developing countries compared to a no-climate change scenario. Irrigated rice
yields will fall by 15 percent.
Even without climate change, food prices will rise,
but climate change makes the problem worse.
Without climate change, 2050 wheat prices will
increase globally by almost 40 percent. With climate change, wheat prices will
increase by up to 194 percent.
The report says rice is projected to increase 60
percent without climate change, but it will go up by as much as 121 percent with
climate change.
According to the report, 2050 maize prices will be
more than 60percent higher without climate change, but they will be up to 153
percent higher with climate change.
The study combines climate models that project
changes in rainfall and temperature and a crop model to capture biophysical
effects with IFPRI's economic model of world agriculture.
The latter projects change in the production,
consumption and trade of major agricultural commodities.
The modeling does not include the effects of
increased variability in weather due to climate change; the loss of agricultural
lands due to rising sea levels; climate change-induced increases in pests and
diseases; and increased variability in river flow as glaciers melt.
All these factors, the report says, could increase
the damage of climate change to agriculture. "If governments and donors begin
now to invest seriously in adaptation for poor farmers, we can avert this bleak
future," said Rosegrant.
In addition to increased funding for rural
development, IFPRI recommends more open agricultural trade to ensure that food
will reach the poorest populations in times of crises.