WASHINGTON, Sept. 4 (Xinhua) -- After a landslide
victory that has reshaped the country's political landscape, the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) could well now move to change policies toward the United
States.
The DPJ threw out the Liberal Democratic Party, which
had run the country for the past 54 years except for one 11-month period.
While analysts believe Japan will not change its
relationship drastically with its long-time ally across the Pacific, most said
the new leadership would push forward for some degree of change, having already
voiced a desire to re-evaluate the Status of Forces Agreement.
The accord dictates how U.S. troops are managed and
other policies governing U.S. troops stationed on the island state.
Some 47,000 U.S military personnel are stationed in
Japan now at bases in Okinawa and elsewhere and U.S. troops have been in the
country since the end of World War II.
U.S. forces have been unpopular with local residents
for decades, who have voiced disapproval against incidents ranging from the
noise of overhead aircraft to the rape of Japanese women by U.S. soldiers.
In an infamous 1995 case, three U.S. servicemen
kidnapped and raped a 12-year-old Japanese girl, which sparked outrage among
Japanese and led to a debate over continued presence of U.S. forces in their
country.
A perceived unequal relationship with Washington has
for decades stuck in the craw of Japanese politicians and those Japanese
civilians living near U.S. military bases, although it isa non-issue for
residents of far-away cities such as Tokyo and Osaka.
However, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly
said Monday there would be no re-negotiation of the status of U.S. forces in
Okinawa.
Doug Bandow, senior fellow at the Washington,
D.C.-based Cato Institute, said the DPJ could use its overwhelming majority in
both the lower and upper houses of the Japanese parliament (diet) to change
current laws governing the cross-Pacific alliance.
Rodger Baker, director of East Asia analysis at
Strategic Forecasting, Inc. known for short as Stratfor, a global intelligence
company, said DPJ would likely push Washington for an agreement that puts the
two nations on a more equal footing when it comes to dealing with crimes
committed by U.S. soldiers in Japan.
That could include putting U.S. military personnel up
for trial in Japanese courts, he said.
While that occurred before -- the defendants in the
1995 rape case were handed over to the Japanese for trial -- U.S. troops are
more often than not exempt from the jurisdiction of local laws in foreign
countries.
The new ruling party also looked likely to push the
United States to foot a larger portion of the bill associated with U.S. bases
and troops in Japan, as Japan currently pays 40 percent of those costs.
"You want to be here more than we want you here, so
you pay more" is the argument the DPJ would most likely present to U.S.
diplomats, Baker said.
U.S. forces are unlikely to withdraw from Japan
completely and the Japanese will probably not request such a move.
"That (withdrawal) could really shake up East Asia,"
the intelligence analyst said, adding such a decision could have ripple effects
in other countries, such as the Republic of Korea, where U.S. troops are also
stationed in large numbers.
"The U.S. military doesn't want to set (that kind of)
precedent," he said. "That could snowball on the U.S. in other places like Iraq
or (South) Korea."
But negotiations on who pays for what could come out
in Japan's favor.
"(U.S. President Barack) Obama will likely toss them
a bone," Baker said, "We may see some accommodations made for Tokyo."
Sheila A. Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at
the Council on Foreign Relations, said it would take the new leadership some
time to refine its objectives.
It would also be important for Tokyo to articulate
the areas in which the DPJ wanted to work with Washington.
So far, it was the party's criticism of past
management practices that have grabbed public attention, Smith added.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is making
arrangements to visit Japan, possibly as soon as October.
Baker said DPJ officials would have to put on a
strong face to appease constituents while re-assuring Washington that changes
would not be radical.
The ruling party understood that Japan needed U.S.
forces for security and was therefore unlikely to tell U.S. troops to pack and
leave, Baker added.
For its part, the United States may appear to listen,
but may not see eye-to-eye with the new leadership in Japan.
"The U.S. goes to countries and nods and smiles and
then walks away and says 'I am listening but I might not do what you say,'" the
Strat for analyst said.
The Cato fellow, Bandow, said Japan was capable of
taking on its own defense responsibilities.
"Japan today has the second largest economy on
earth," and there is no reason why the United States should continue to defend
it, he argued.
If U.S. forces were to remain in Japan, Bandow added,
the United States would prefer being the dominant partner, although U.S.
officials had in the past urged Japan to take more responsibility for defense.
"Washington wants to make the policies and have the
Japanese follow. But this new government in Tokyo may very well change that," he
said.