Japan's DPJ could reshape ties with U.S.
www.chinaview.cn 2009-09-05 14:50:49   Print

    WASHINGTON, Sept. 4 (Xinhua) -- After a landslide victory that has reshaped the country's political landscape, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) could well now move to change policies toward the United States.

    The DPJ threw out the Liberal Democratic Party, which had run the country for the past 54 years except for one 11-month period.

    While analysts believe Japan will not change its relationship drastically with its long-time ally across the Pacific, most said the new leadership would push forward for some degree of change, having already voiced a desire to re-evaluate the Status of Forces Agreement.

    The accord dictates how U.S. troops are managed and other policies governing U.S. troops stationed on the island state.

    Some 47,000 U.S military personnel are stationed in Japan now at bases in Okinawa and elsewhere and U.S. troops have been in the country since the end of World War II.

    U.S. forces have been unpopular with local residents for decades, who have voiced disapproval against incidents ranging from the noise of overhead aircraft to the rape of Japanese women by U.S. soldiers.

    In an infamous 1995 case, three U.S. servicemen kidnapped and raped a 12-year-old Japanese girl, which sparked outrage among Japanese and led to a debate over continued presence of U.S. forces in their country.

    A perceived unequal relationship with Washington has for decades stuck in the craw of Japanese politicians and those Japanese civilians living near U.S. military bases, although it isa non-issue for residents of far-away cities such as Tokyo and Osaka.

    However, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Monday there would be no re-negotiation of the status of U.S. forces in Okinawa.

    Doug Bandow, senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Cato Institute, said the DPJ could use its overwhelming majority in both the lower and upper houses of the Japanese parliament (diet) to change current laws governing the cross-Pacific alliance.

    Rodger Baker, director of East Asia analysis at Strategic Forecasting, Inc. known for short as Stratfor, a global intelligence company, said DPJ would likely push Washington for an agreement that puts the two nations on a more equal footing when it comes to dealing with crimes committed by U.S. soldiers in Japan.

    That could include putting U.S. military personnel up for trial in Japanese courts, he said.

    While that occurred before -- the defendants in the 1995 rape case were handed over to the Japanese for trial -- U.S. troops are more often than not exempt from the jurisdiction of local laws in foreign countries.

    The new ruling party also looked likely to push the United States to foot a larger portion of the bill associated with U.S. bases and troops in Japan, as Japan currently pays 40 percent of those costs.

    "You want to be here more than we want you here, so you pay more" is the argument the DPJ would most likely present to U.S. diplomats, Baker said.

    U.S. forces are unlikely to withdraw from Japan completely and the Japanese will probably not request such a move.

    "That (withdrawal) could really shake up East Asia," the intelligence analyst said, adding such a decision could have ripple effects in other countries, such as the Republic of Korea, where U.S. troops are also stationed in large numbers.

    "The U.S. military doesn't want to set (that kind of) precedent," he said. "That could snowball on the U.S. in other places like Iraq or (South) Korea."

    But negotiations on who pays for what could come out in Japan's favor.

    "(U.S. President Barack) Obama will likely toss them a bone," Baker said, "We may see some accommodations made for Tokyo."

    Sheila A. Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it would take the new leadership some time to refine its objectives.

    It would also be important for Tokyo to articulate the areas in which the DPJ wanted to work with Washington.

    So far, it was the party's criticism of past management practices that have grabbed public attention, Smith added.

    U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is making arrangements to visit Japan, possibly as soon as October.

    Baker said DPJ officials would have to put on a strong face to appease constituents while re-assuring Washington that changes would not be radical.

    The ruling party understood that Japan needed U.S. forces for security and was therefore unlikely to tell U.S. troops to pack and leave, Baker added.

    For its part, the United States may appear to listen, but may not see eye-to-eye with the new leadership in Japan.

    "The U.S. goes to countries and nods and smiles and then walks away and says 'I am listening but I might not do what you say,'" the Strat for analyst said.

    The Cato fellow, Bandow, said Japan was capable of taking on its own defense responsibilities.

    "Japan today has the second largest economy on earth," and there is no reason why the United States should continue to defend it, he argued.

    If U.S. forces were to remain in Japan, Bandow added, the United States would prefer being the dominant partner, although U.S. officials had in the past urged Japan to take more responsibility for defense.

    "Washington wants to make the policies and have the Japanese follow. But this new government in Tokyo may very well change that," he said.

Editor: Lin Zhi
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