RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug. 27 (Xinhua) -- The worst of the 2008 international
financial crisis proved that Brazil was more prepared than ever for a traumatic
economic situation, a Brazilian scholar said Thursday.
Compared with similar turmoils in the past, Brazil had survived the latest
crisis with more than reasonable reserves (210 billion U.S. dollars), a
controlled inflation rate and a GDP growth of 6.8percent in the third quarter,
Luiz Guilherme Schymura, director of the Getulio Vargas Foundation's Brazilian
Economy Institute (IBRE),said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua Thursday.
Schymura said the crisis had only a limited impact on service and
agricultural activity, but heavily affected industry, especially in the durable
goods sector, which covers vehicles, cell phones and household electric
appliances.
The government's timely tax-cut measures had allowed the quick recovery of
the sector, especially the automotive industry, the expert said.
Brazil's industrial production fell 20 percent in the last four months of
2008, and increased 7.9 percent from Dec. 2008 to June 2009. However, if the
automotive industry's figures were taken from these calculations, the figures
would be 15.3 percent and 2.6percent, respectively.
Schymura said the figures showed the clear role of the durable goods sector
in the recovery process.
Furthermore, the employment rate had withstood the hardest time in the
fourth quarter of 2008 and returned in July to the same level registered a year
earlier, before the crisis, he said.
As for trade, although both exports and imports shrunk significantly, the
comparatively stronger demand for exports from Brazil allowed it to enjoy a
comfortable surplus of 18.5 billion U.S. dollars.
In the case of basic products, Schymura said demand from countries such as
China and other Asian countries ensured prices would remain advantageous and
would not change drastically in the future.
Meanwhile, the export of manufactured products fell sharply as demand from
the United States and Latin American countries dropped.
What could be observed here was the importance of basic products and the
primary sector, the IBRE director said.
Schymura also said the economic difficulties Brazil underwent in the 1990s
helped the country establish a sound financial system to get through the latest
global financial turmoil.
The crisis served to prove that financial stability was not at risk and
that fiscal discipline had been consolidated, Schymura said.
Additionally, Brazil's macroeconomic policy has been proved to be
well-structured and provided clear results, the economist added.
Special Report:
Global Financial
Crisis