TEGUCIGALPA, July 7 (Xinhua) -- Both ousted
Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and the interim government have accepted Costa
Rican President Oscar Arias as a mediator, but it remains to be seen how far
international mediation can go to help solve the political deadlock in the
country.
Zelaya, who will travel to Costa Rica where the
mediation is to be conducted, said he was pleased with Arias' appointment,
adding that it showed "the international community is still supporting democracy
in Honduras."
Meanwhile, interim Honduran President Roberto
Micheletti said he would send a delegation soon to Costa Rica, but noted the
meeting "doesn't mean that Zelaya will be allowed to return."
GLIMMER OF
HOPE
The new development in the Honduran political crisis
came after Zelaya's meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on
Tuesday, the highest-level contact between him and U.S. President Barack Obama's
administration since Zelaya was ousted in the June 28 coup.
Clinton said: "It is our hope, that through this
dialogue mechanism overseen by President Arias, there can be a restoration of
democratic, constitutional order, a peaceful resolution of this matter."
Calling on both sides to refrain from further
violence in order to break the political deadlock, Clinton said she was
"heartened" that Zelaya had agreed to Arias' mediation and would not try again
to force his way back to Honduras.
Zelaya tried in vain on Sunday to return home only to
find that his plane was unable to land at the airport as the runway was blocked
by soldiers with military vehicles. He was forced to land in neighboring
Nicaragua and vowed to try again.
Another optimistic sign of compromise came when a
Honduran Supreme Court spokesman told the media on Tuesday that Zelaya would be
allowed to return if the Congress granted him amnesty.
The softened stance was in stark contrast to the
interim government's earlier threats to arrest Zelaya for 18 alleged criminal
acts if he returned to the country.
INTERNATIONAL
OPINIONS
The coup has been widely condemned abroad as
international pressure mounts on the interim government, and the Organization of
American States decided last Saturday to suspend Honduras's membership after the
post-coup authorities missed a deadline on Zelaya's reinstatement.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday in
Geneva he was saddened by the loss of life due to clashes between troops and
Zelaya's supporters, and urged the authorities to protect civilians. He said the
military coup was "unacceptable."
Voices calling for Zelaya to temporarily stay abroad
and solve the crisis through diplomatic mediation have also been heard from the
international community.
However, the U.S. government's approach can exert by
far the most important influence on development of the crisis. The United States
has an air base with hundreds of troops near the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa.
Up to now, the U.S. government has offered support
for Zelaya only because of his legal status as Honduras' elected president.
"America supports the restoration of the
democratically elected president of Honduras, even though he has strongly
opposed American policies," Obama said on Tuesday during his visit to Russia. He
said: "We do so not because we agree with him."
The U.S. State Department said it had suspended
military assistance programs and a few development assistance programs to
Honduras, but analysts said the interim government could possibly stay in power
as long as the U.S. does not adopt a hostile stance toward it.
POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS
Results of the upcoming talks in Costa Rica will
largely depend on both sides' positions. A solution could be found if Zelaya
agrees to ditch his plan to lift presidential term limits.
The opposition accused Zelaya, whose current term
expires next January, of seeking re-election through a referendum originally
scheduled for June 28 on removing the current one-term constitutional limit for
presidents, while the Supreme Court and the attorney-general said that the vote
would be illegal.
However, if the two sides fail to compromise and the
talks fall apart, Honduras is likely to face increasing international isolation.
Another possible scenario is that the interim
government could hold early elections, as it has already suggested. Zelaya also
said he accepted the possibility of holding elections before the scheduled date
of Nov. 29.
"Of course, even if (the interim government) wants to
hold elections as early as tomorrow, a de facto government does not give
legitimacy to an electoral process," Zelaya told reporters after meeting with
Clinton.
Analysts said the most likely scenario is that the
interim government would prolong the negotiation process to gain time until the
elections in November, when the crisis can be solved in a peaceful and
legitimate way.