by Matthew Rusling
WASHINGTON, July 7 (Xinhua) -- If asked a few months
ago whether the U.S. economy needed another round of stimulus, many economists
and politicians would have said no.
But with unemployment continuing to rise, some are
calling for a second injection of funds to jump start the economy.
In February, U.S. President Barack Obama signed into
law the 787-billion-U.S.-dollar American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in a bid
to create 3.5 million jobs and stymie the toughest recession in decades.
Jobless rates, however, are still rising in spite of
the act. The U.S. Department of Labor announced Thursday that unemployment rose
to 9.5 percent in June -- or around 14 million people out of work -- from 9.4
percent in May. Many experts predict figures could reach 10 percent.
Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday raised speculation
over whether a second stimulus could be on the horizon when he said the Obama
administration underestimated the recession's depth.
"We misread how bad the economy was," he said on
"This Week," a TV talk show.
When asked whether an additional stimulus package was
needed, he said it was "premature to make that judgment" but did not rule out
the idea.
The administration will continue to monitor the
funds' effects during the next few months as they work their way through the
economy, he said.
There is, however, some support among House Democrats
for a fresh package.
A House Democratic staffer told Xinhua, "Additional
stimulus funding has some support, especially among many progressive
representatives."
But there is a general sense that the initial
stimulus plan is starting to work now and will continue to be effective as more
of the money is spent in the months to come, the staffer said.
Many members of Congress are willing to give it more
time, but they will be keeping a watchful eye on the unemployment numbers and
other economic indicators, the staffer said.
"If more assistance is needed, additional stimulus
funding is possible," the staffer said.
For their part, Republicans may support a new
stimulus bill, as long as it does not resemble the first one.
House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, R-Virginia, said on
Monday that Republicans would work with Obama on a second bill if it contained
the heavy tax cuts the GOP originally proposed.
Cantor's statement comes amid mounting criticism of
the first stimulus for not yet delivering the jobs it promised.
House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, pointed
out that the Obama administration vowed to halt unemployment before it passed
the 8 percent mark.
But Boehner's state has yet to see one single
contract related to the infrastructure spending that the stimulus promised, he
said.
"This was supposed to be about jobs, jobs, and jobs.
And the fact is it turned into nothing more than spending, spending and more
spending on a lot of big government bureaucracy," he told FoxNews on Sunday.
Many conservatives are wary of another bill that
would amount to what they view as a waste of taxpayers' funds. They see tax cuts
as the solution, rather than more spending. Others are wary of the government's
ability to find a way out of the recession and say it should have been left up
to the economy's invisible hand.
Economists have differing views.
Heidi Shierholz, economist at the Economic Policy
Institute, a Washington, D.C. think tank, is in favor of a second round of
spending.
"The evidence of the need for another round of
stimulus is overwhelming," she said, adding that any new package should be as
large as the last one.
When the first stimulus bill was being debated, few
predicted unemployment would reach such record highs, she said.
But once those funds were disbursed, the economy slid
fast and the nation soon lost twice as many jobs as the package sought to
generate, she said.
The bill also failed to account for the additional
monthly demand for 127,000 new jobs for recent high school and college
graduates, she said.
Other economists recommend a new package on grounds
that most of the first stimulus has already been spent.
Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic
and Policy Research, a Washington, D.C. think tank, said most of the moneys went
to tax cuts, unemployment benefits and state and local governments.
"So the amount of money left is not large enough to
have all that much impact," he said.
Another round of 450 billion dollars a year for two
years is necessary -- and that is a conservative estimate, he added.
"It's the only thing that can boost the economy," he
said.
Others, like Biden, maintain that the funds from the
first stimulus have not yet kicked in.
Ben Carliner, director of research at the Economic
Strategy Institute, another Washington, D.C. think tank, said a new package
could be necessary, but it is best to wait until the second half of the year to
see how the funds take effect.
Other economists, however, see no need at all for an
additional round.
Alan Viard, resident scholar at the American
Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C. think tank, said government spending
rarely helps pull the economy out of recession.
That is because timing is tricky and plans do not
immediately take effect, he said. The first stimulus will add jobs, but not
until the recession has already passed, he said. "In many cases in history,
(stimulus packages) have taken effect after the economy has already recovered,"
he said.
But he added that this recession is unusual in its
severity, and is one of the few in recent memory in which a stimulus is
justified.
Others are wary of markets' reaction to more
government spending.
Barry Bosworth, former presidential advisor and
senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C. think tank, said
he doubts whether a second bill will be enacted, as financial markets are
concerned about large future budget deficits from the Obama administration's
heavy spending.
Some economists are concerned that more government
spending on top of an already record budget deficit -- expected to reach 1.8
trillion dollars this year -- could rattle investor confidence and even spur
inflation.
Others, however, said some short term debt is not
harmful, as economies must spend in order to reap long-term benefits.
Shierholz said, "The fact that we have a big deficit
is a good thing. As far as turning this economic ship around, (spending) is
exactly what we need to be doing."
"It's like spending money for college," she said. "It
pays off in the long run."
Some economists said it is the nature of the U.S.
system itself that has generated a need for a stimulus package.
Carliner said no stimulus at all would be required if
the United States had a better safety net to shield unemployed Americans from
financial ruin if they are laid off.
Indeed, recessions tend to hit consumer spending
harder in the United States than in Europe, as U.S. unemployment insurance pays
relatively low, causing unemployed Americans to tighten their belts, he said.
And losing one's health insurance -- most Americans'
health coverage is through employers -- spurs more people to save in case they
are hit with an unforeseen medical expense, he said.
The more people save, the longer it will take to
revive the economy, he said.