The government has raised tax rebates on the export of thousands of items six times since August last year. For belts, the tax rebate rate has risen from 5 percent to 14 percent.

    Wang, the analyst, said the month-on-month increase in consumption, along with other indicators like rising industrial output, increasing share prices and fixed-asset investment, was a sign of economic recovery.

    China's GDP grew 6.1 percent year on year in the first quarter, the lowest in 10 years. But the government claimed stimulus measures had produced positive results and the first-quarter performance was better than expected.

    Wang, however, warns that future power consumption could fluctuate unless power use of power-consuming heavy industries, like steel and mining, stops falling and begins to rise steadily.

    Citing falling electricity output in the last 10 days of March and the first 10 days of April, Wang says fluctuating power demand means economic recovery will not be easy.

    In the last 10 days of March, China's power generation fell 2 percent year on year, compared with a more than 1-percent increase in the first 10 days of March, according to the Dispatching Center of the State Grid.

    The downward trend accelerated in the first 10 days of April, when generation dropped 3.5 percent year on year.

    The sharper drop is possibly a reflection of reduced industrial production, Wang says.

    The drop in power output in south China, including the biggest export province, Guangdong, accelerated in the first 10 days this month, which he interprets as a poor omen for economic recovery.

    "Only by the end of the second quarter will we be better able to tell whether there is a solid recovery," Wang says.

    Tang Min, deputy secretary general of the China Development Research Foundation, echoes his view.

    Tang says that even in Zhejiang Province, home to Wenzhou, many small and medium-sized firms are still experiencing difficult times with no signs that they are planning new investments.

    "First-quarter economic data indicate signs of recovery, but these are natural results of record credit and aggressive government policies to stimulate the economy," he says.

    And he warns there will be little investment in the second and third quarters.

    The world economy is also showing no signs of a turnaround in coming months and demand for Chinese products will still be weak, Tang says.

    Zhou Dewen, president of Wenzhou's association of small and medium-sized enterprises, is more pessimistic.

    It is too early to talk of an overall recovery since overseas demand continues to slump, Zhou says, and Wenzhou's manufacturing economy has not reached the bottom.

    Even Wang Wenxu is worried though production is close to pre-slowdown levels.

    "In April, so far, so good. But I am really not certain what will happen in May and June. There are still uncertainties in both the Chinese and world economies," he says.