by Xinhua writer Hai Yang
MOSCOW, April 13 (Xinhua) -- With bilateral relations apparently on a positive track under U.S. President Barack Obama's administration, Russia and the United States are expected to begin the first round of consultations on a new strategic arms reduction treaty by the end of April.
Though the Obama administration regards the arms reduction talks as its first practical step toward a nuclear-free world, Russia remains cautious on the actual outcome of the talks.
A NUCLEAR-FREE WORLD
While addressing nearly 30,000 people at Hradcany Square in downtown Prague on April 5, Obama called for reducing the world's nuclear arsenal and finally eliminating all nuclear threat in the world.
He said that "to put an end to Cold War thinking, we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and urge others to do the same."
Earlier this month in London, Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev issued a joint statement, saying the two countries will work out a "new, comprehensive, legally binding" agreement on reducing and limiting strategic offensive arms. Later Russian officials confirmed that the first round of consultations will begin by the end of April.
The joint statement said the new treaty would set lower limits for strategic weapons than the 2002 treaty, which called for reducing nuclear warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 by the end of2012.
U.S. SHIFT OF NUCLEAR STRATEGY
Obama's speech in Prague marks a complete transformation in U.S. thinking about nuclear weapons, some analysts said.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, said that Obama has decided to make the elimination of all the world's nuclear weapons a central goal of U.S. nuclear policy.
"Obama may decide that the only purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter their use and that they should never be used or threatened to counter conventional attacks," Kimball said in his article published on Monday by the Moscow Times.
To start the new U.S. nuclear policy, Obama has chosen to negotiate with Russia on the new nuclear arms reduction treaty, said Kimball.
"The two sides will likely set lower limits on deployed strategic warheads -- to 1,500 or below on each side -- and the missiles and bombers used to deliver them," he said in the article.
"Given that no other state possesses more than 300 nuclear bombs, that simple shift in U.S. nuclear strategy would facilitate far deeper reductions in U.S. and Russian arsenals -- to 1,000 total nuclear warheads each in the next five years -- and open a path for multilateral disarmament talks involving other nuclear-armed states," said the article.
However, to put the nuclear-free world into reality requires more efforts from other countries, according to Kimball.
"NATO countries and Russia should agree to put tactical nuclear weapons on the negotiating table and begin a process of accounting for and eventually dismantling these obsolete systems," said the article.
OBSTACLES LYING AHEAD
Although the U.S. expert is quite optimistic in Obama's nuclear policy, Russian analysts noted that a number of stumbling blocks remain on concluding the new treaty.
"Among them, the major one is the coordination of principles on the accounting of warheads, because there has been a lot of disputes on this issue over the years," the Interfax news agency quoted Maj. Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, a senior fellow with the International Security Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, as saying.
Indeed, earlier media reports estimated that the United States currently has at least 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads deployed and Russia between 2,000 and 3,000. But figures given out by Kimball citing independent experts showed that Russian arsenal of tactical nuclear warheads could be as high as 8,000.
Meanwhile, experts from Poland, the key location of U.S. missile defense system, believed that the United States and Russia together hold nearly 25,000 nuclear warheads, or 96 percent of the global nuclear arsenal, according to the Moscow Times.
Another obstacle lies right in the U.S. stance on its missile defense system.
While calling for a nuclear-free world, Obama also said in Prague that he would continue to pursue a missile defense system in Europe "that is cost-effective and proven" as long as the Iranian nuclear threat existed, Russian analysts pointed out.
"Obama's proposal of a nuclear-free world is not a propaganda move. The Americans have outlined a long-term policy that will benefit them. However, one cannot liquidate nuclear weapons without changing one's policy from positions of strength while at the same time developing an ABM system," the Vremya Novostei quoted Gen. Pavel Zolotarev, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies, as saying.
"The Americans will not stop the deployment of a missile defense system in Europe," the daily Russian paper reported citing another expert Viktor Yesin, former chief of staff of Russia's Strategic Missile Force.
The only question is "whether Obama will limit it to 10 anti-missiles in Poland and one missile tracking radar in the Czech Republic or not," said Yesin.
Lastly but most importantly, some Russian analysts also noted that the Kremlin relies heavily on its nuclear arms for national security due to its "weak" conventional forces.
Russia's nuclear arsenal is the only military component that gives it hedge in dealing with the United States and other major powers, said Alexander Golts, deputy editor of the on-line newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.
"This is precisely why Russia's military strategists see Obama's call for a decrease in nuclear weapons as another attempt to decrease Moscow's influence," he said in an article published on the Moscow Times.
