Graphics shows China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the year of 2008, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Jan. 22, 2009. China's GDP reached 30.067 trillion yuan (4.4216 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2008, expanding 9 percent year-on-year. (Xinhua Photo) Photo Gallery>>>
BEIJING, Jan. 22 (Xinhua) -- China's economy cooled to its
slowest pace in seven years in 2008, expanding 9 percent year-on-year as the
widening global financial crisis continued to affect the world's fastest-growing
economy, official data showed Thursday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) reached 30.067 trillion
yuan (4.4216 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2008, Ma Jiantang, director of the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), told a press conference.
The 9-percent rate was the lowest since 2001, when an
annual rate of 8.3 percent was recorded, and it was the first time China's GDP
growth fell into the single-digit range since 2003.
The year-on-year growth rate for the fourth quarter
slid to 6.8 percent from 9 percent in the third quarter and 9.9 percent for the
first three quarters, according to Ma.
Economic growth showed "an obvious correction" last
year, but the full-year performance was still better than other countries
affected by the global financial crisis, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the
Development Research Center of the State Council, or cabinet.
He attributed the fourth-quarter weakness to reduced
industrial output as inventories piled up amid sharply lower foreign demand.
Exports, which accounted for about one-third of GDP,
fell 2.8 percent year-on-year to 111.16 billion U.S. dollars in December.
Exports declined 2.2 percent in November from a year earlier.
Industrial output rose 12.9 percent year-on-year in
2008, down 5.6 percentage points from the previous year, said Ma.
SEEKING THE BOTTOM
Government economist Wang Xiaoguang said the
6.8-percent growth rate in the fourth quarter was not a sign of a "hard
landing," just a necessary "adjustment" from previous rapid expansion.
"This round of downward adjustment won't bottom out
in just a year or several quarters but might last two or three years, which is a
normal situation," he said.
A report Thursday from London-based Standard
Chartered Bank called the 6.8-percent growth in the fourth quarter "respectable"
but said the data overall presented "a batch of mixed signals."
It said: "We probably saw zero real growth in the
fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, and it could have been
marginally negative."
The weakening economy has already had an impact on
several Chinese industrial giants. Angang Steel Co. Ltd. (Ansteel), one of the
top three steel producers, said Wednesday net profit fell 55 percent last year
as steel prices plunged. It cited weakening demand late in the year.
However, officials and analysts said some positive
signs surfaced in December, which they said indicated China could recover before
other countries.
December figures on money supply, consumption, and
industrial output showed some "positive changes" but whether they represented a
trend was unclear, said Ma.
Outstanding local currency loans for December
expanded by 771.8 billion yuan, up 723.3 billion from a year earlier, according
to official data.
Real retail sales growth in December accelerated 0.8
percentage points from November to 17.4 percent. Industrial output also
accelerated in December, up 0.3 percentage points from the annual rate of
November.
Wang Qing, Morgan Stanley Asia chief economist for
China, said GDP growth would hit a trough in the first or second quarter. China
will perform better than most economies affected by the global crisis and
gradually improve this year, he said.
Zhang also predicted the economy will touch bottom
and start to recover later this year, depending on the performance in January
and February.
Zhang forecast GDP growth of more than 8 percent for
2009, based on the assumption that domestic demand and accelerating urbanization
would help cushion China from world economic conditions.
Wang Tongsan, an economist with the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, said whether GDP growth exceeds 8 percent this year depends
on how the world economy performs and how well the government stimulus policies
are implemented.
Ma characterized the "difficulties" China experienced
in the fourth quarter as temporary, saying: "We should have the confidence to be
the first country out of the crisis."
Overall, the economy maintained good momentum with
fast growth, stable prices, optimized structures and improved living standards,
said Ma.
China's performance was better than the average
growth of 3.7 percent for the world economy last year, 1.4 percent for developed
countries and 6.6 percent for developing and emerging economies, he said, citing
estimates of the International Monetary Fund.
"With a 9-percent rate, China actually contributed
more than 20 percent of global economic growth in 2008," said Ma.
He said the industrial structure became "more
balanced" last year, with faster growth of investment and industrial output in
the less-developed central and western regions than in the eastern areas.
Meanwhile, energy efficiency improved: energy
intensity, the amount of energy it takes to produce a unit of GDP, fell 4.21
percent year-on-year in 2008, a larger decrease than the 3.66 percent recorded
in 2007, said Ma.
WORRIES ABOUT CONSUMPTION
A slowing economy poses a concern for the
authorities, which they have acknowledged several times in recent weeks, as
rising unemployment could threaten social stability. It could also undermine
consumer spending, which the government is counting on to offset weak external
demand.
The government has maintained a target of 8 percent
annual economic growth since 2005.
China announced a 4 trillion-yuan economic stimulus
package in November aimed at boosting domestic demand.
Retail sales rose 21.6 percent in 2008, 4.8
percentage points more than in 2007, said Ma.
Ma said he believed domestic consumption would
maintain rapid growth as long as personal incomes continue to increase and
social security benefits improve.
Urban disposable incomes rose a real 8.4 percent last
year, while those of rural Chinese went up 8 percent, he said.
Analysts have warned that consumption could be
affected if low rates of inflation deteriorate into outright deflation and
factory closures result in more jobless migrant workers.
The urban unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent at
the end of 2008, up 0.2 percentage point year-on-year.
Ma said about 5 percent of 130 million migrant
workers had returned to their rural homes since late 2008 because their
employers closed down or suspended production. Other officials have said that
6.5 percent or even 10 percent of migrant workers have gone home after losing
their jobs.
BEIJING, Jan. 22 (Xinhua)
-- China's fixed-asset investment rose 25.5 percent year-on-year to 17.23
trillion yuan (2.52 trillion US dollars) in 2008, the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) said Thursday. Full story
BEIJING, Jan. 22 (Xinhua) -- China's consumer price
index (CPI) rose 5.9 percent last year, 1.1 percentage points higher than in
2007, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. Full story
BEIJING, Jan. 22
(Xinhua) -- China's retail sales grew at an annual rate of 21.6 percent in 2008,
up 4.8 percentage points from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics
said Thursday. Full story
BEIJING, Jan. 22 (Xinhua) -- China's industrial output rose
12.9 percent year on year in 2008, 5.6 percentage points lower than the previous
year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday. Full story
