Special report: Palestine-Israel Conflicts 

    by Xu Gang

    JERUSALEM, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)operation in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip continued on Thursday, Israel is now facing the primary problem of finding an exit strategy for the operation, an expert said.

    The operation, dubbed Cast Lead, entered its sixth day on Thursday. According to Palestinian sources, the offensive beginning Saturday has so far killed over 400 people and injured over 2,000 others.

    Hamas, the Gaza ruler, has sustained significant damage, and its operatives have hidden out in hospitals and mosques, said Israel's Shin Bet security agency on Wednesday, noting that "Hamas has been attacked like it has never been attacked before."

Israeli soliders look into northern Gaza atop a tank in southern Israel bordering the Gaza Strip, Jan. 1, 2009. Soldiers spent their new year waiting for orders of possible ground offensive into Gaza Strip. (Xinhua/Yin Bogu) Photo Gallery>>>

    "As is common in these situations, Israel's primary problem is finding an exit strategy," said Shlomo Brom, a senior research fellow of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

    "That is, how are the achievements of the military campaign translated into the desired results. Such a strategy impacts on the length of the campaign and the additional steps that may be taken," said Brom.

    According to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the goals of the operation are "to fundamentally improve the security situationin the southern part of the country."

    In Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's terms, the objectives are "to change the situation from the foundation and ensure that there will be no more fire or other hostile activity coming from Gaza."

    Wider objectives -- such as toppling the Hamas regime or conquering Gaza -- were not presented, noted Brom.

    This suggests that the method of operation has been chosen to exact a toll of Hamas and weaken it in order to create a new balance of deterrence between Israel and Hamas, assuming that Hamas will exercise more restraint in initiating attacks against Israel once it grasps the steep price it will have to pay and its limited ability to cope with the Israeli response, he said.

    "In other words, Israel is striving for a new, stable and long lasting ceasefire with a weakened Hamas under terms that reflect the change in the balance of power. Among the new conditions would be a ban on Hamas activity near the border with Israel and limiting, to the extent possible, the smuggling of arms into Gaza," explained the expert.

An Israeli military helicopter flies over the northern Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2009. Israeli warplanes continued airstrikes Thursday on the Gaza Strip for the sixth day, leaving 410 Palestinians dead and nearly 2,000 others wounded. (Xinhua/Yin Bogu) Photo Gallery>>>

    "For Hamas, it will do what it can to prevent this outcome. It would seem that its basic objective is also a new ceasefire, but on its own terms, i.e., with no limits on its ability to operate in the Gaza Strip area and along the Egyptian border, and with crossings to Egypt and Israel that are open regularly," he said.

    According to the expert, Hamas' primary available tool is continued harassment of Israel, and the main component of Hamas' response is its continued ability to launch rockets and mortars of a long enough range to disrupt the daily routine of many Israelis.

    On Thursday, Gaza militants continued its retaliatory barrage, firing rockets and mortar shells at southern Israel with a range of up to 40 kilometers. Since Saturday, the fire has caused four deaths and over a dozen injuries on the Israeli side.

    However, the main problem of Hamas is that the IDF has successfully struck a significant part of Hamas' capabilities and to a considerable extent suppressed its ability to deploy the forces left at its disposal, said Brom.

    "Therefore, Hamas is likely to try to rehabilitate its ability to deploy its forces, ideally with reduced exposure to IDF deterrent capabilities, and at the same time resort to other means of attack," he said.

    Though Israel is mulling an exit strategy for its Gaza operation, and Hamas appears to be willing to accept a new ceasefire based on its own terms, it is by no means an easy job for the two sides to reach a new truce in the near future.

    There are two possible mechanisms for Israel to attain its goals, said Brom.

    The first is striving for an agreement or understandings with Hamas about a ceasefire under new terms through mediators from the Arab world and beyond who would be able to negotiate with both sides, he said, adding that the advantage of an agreement or understandings is the ability to create a more stable ceasefire than before.

    The second mechanism is a unilateral ceasefire on the part of both sides, under terms in which the price of transgressing the ceasefire terms would be made very clear to Hamas.

    This would require no agreement or formal understandings, but such a ceasefire is less stable because the two sides may offer different interpretations of what is allowed and what is not, without there being any sort of mechanism to handle problems that arise, Brom warned.

    Above all, it is necessary to find mediators who can examine the different options and help end the fighting so that Israel's strategic objectives of the operation will be realized based on the military moves that serve these objectives, noted the expert.

    In Brom's opinion, as soon as the goals are attained, Israeli leaders would prefer to end the fighting.

    On Thursday, Olmert said during a tour to the rocket-battered southern city of Beersheba that Israel has no interest in extending the ongoing offensive in Gaza.

    "We have no interest in waging a prolonged war ... We are also not eager to wage a war on a wide front," he said.

    The premier reiterated that Israel does not mean to harm Gaza civilians but to strike Hamas with "an iron fist," saying that he was hopeful that the goals of the operation would be attained quickly.

    Commenting on a possible ceasefire with Hamas, Olmert said that he is interested in establishing an international supervision and enforcement mechanism for any Gaza truce, which he has reportedly made a precondition of any such deal.

    "If the conditions mature and we think they offer a solution that ensures a better security situation for southern Israel, then we will consider the matter. But we aren't there yet," said Olmert on Wednesday.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy says goodbye to Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris,Jan.1,2009.Livni repeats her government's rejection of a ceasefire with militants in the Gaza Strip while speaking to reporters after the meeting. (Xinhua/Zhang Yuwei) Photo Gallery>>>

Israel rejects calls for immediate ceasefire in Gaza

   PARIS, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- Visiting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni rejected here on Thursday calls for an immediate ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

   After meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, Livni said: "There is no humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, and therefore there is no need for a humanitarian truce," rejecting French proposal for a 48-hour truce to allow humanitarian aid in Gaza. Full story

Palestinian official: Israeli offensive so far leaves 400 dead, 2,000 wounded

    GAZA, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- The Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip continued on Thursday for the sixth day in a row, with warplanes striking at more targets in the Hamas-controlled territory.

    Mu'awia Hassanien, a Palestinian health emergency official, said the offensive had so far killed 400 Palestinians and left 2,000 wounded. Full story

Poll: most Israeli favor continuing Gaza offensive without ground operation

    JERUSALEM, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- A majority of Israelis are in favor of continuing the ongoing airstrikes on the Gaza Strip without launching a ground maneuver that might endanger Israeli soldiers, found a poll released Thursday.

    Results of the survey, conducted by local daily Ha'aretz and polling company Dialog, showed that 52 percent of the respondents stand behind the Israeli army in its aerial assaults against the Gaza-ruling Hamas movement.Full story

Palestinian rocket-fire into Israel goes on despite raids

    GAZA, Jan. 1 (Xinhua) -- Palestinian militants on Thursday continued firing rockets into Israel despite constant Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip.

    Ezz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Islamic Hamas movement, claimed responsibility for launching tens of rockets into Israel since Thursday morning, including Soviet-made Grad missiles. Full story

China calls for immediate cease-fire in Gaza

    BEIJING, Dec. 30 (Xinhua) -- China is deeply concerned at the current situation in Gaza,and hopes parties involved could immediately halt the armed conflict, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said here on Tuesday.

    China is deeply concerned over the ongoing armed conflict in Gaza, Qin said at a regular press conference. Full story

UN chief: Continued violence in and around Gaza "unacceptable"

    UNITED NATIONS, Dec. 29 (Xinhua) -- UN Chief Ban Ki-moon said on Monday that he was deeply alarmed by the current escalation of violence in and around Gaza, and that such continued violence is "unacceptable."  Full story

U.S. insists on "durable, sustainable" ceasefire between Hamas and Israel

    WASHINGTON, Dec. 30 (Xinhua) -- The United States on Tuesday reiterated its call for a "durable and sustainable" ceasefire between Israel and Hamas militants ruling the Gaza Strip.

    "The ceasefire, in order to be productive, has to be maintained," State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid told reporters. "It can't be a ceasefire in which one side uses it to launch periodic attacks."   Full story

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