Recession forecast stokes controversy in Romania
www.chinaview.cn 2008-11-25 11:52:20   Print

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis¡¡

    BUCHAREST, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) -- A forecast of recession for Romania by the financial rating agency Moody's on Monday has provoked controversy in the eastern European country.

    A Moody's report said Romania might enter recession in 2009 and its GDP will shrink by 0.3 percent. However, despite current developments foreshadowing a difficult 2009 for Romania, Moody's said the country's rating outlook remains stable.

    "I believe this is the most accurate forecast by a rating agency, specifically that Romania might witness a recession in 2009. Moody's issued a warning, but did not lower Romania's rating," Romanian President Traian Basescu told a press conference Monday.

    However, Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu said he is convinced Romania will register positive growth.

    "Moody's has a problem linked to insufficient information on Romanian economic realities," he said.

    "It seems to me as more normal and objective to refer to the European Commission's estimation, which says Romania will have an economic growth of 4.9 percent of its GDP next year," he said.

    "Without doubt, Romania cannot help but be affected by the global economic crisis because we are part of a global economy ...but I believe Romania will register an economic growth higher than that in the western European countries or some other economically developed countries," said Tariceanu.

    "I don't believe Moody's prediction is real," said Adrian Vasilescu, adviser to the National Bank of Romania's governor.

    He said economic growth in Romania might slow down from 9 percent in 2008 to 4-5 percent, but under no circumstances will it fall below zero.

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