WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Xinhua) -- As the first voters
began to cast their ballots in Tuesday's day-long polling in the U.S.
presidential election, the two candidates find their possible paths to victory
very different.
For front-runner Democrat Barack Obama, he has more
options to set up a win.
But for the current underdog and Republican John
McCain, his road to victory is very narrow, if he still has a chance.
However, as the saying goes, "It's not done until it has been done." So there are still some variable factors which could affect the outcome of the election, analysts said. ¡¡
MCCAIN'S CHANCE VERY SLIM
U.S. Republican presidential nominee
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) waves to the crowd at a midnight campaign rally
in Prescott, Arizona November 4, 2008. Senator McCain is scheduled to make
campaign appearances in seven states on the final day before the
election.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo) Photo Gallery>>>
Obama has been enjoying a comfortable leading margin
of some 7 percent for a month in national polls.
More importantly, he is poised to win most key states
that could decide the outcome of the election.
In this election, five states are considered very
crucial.
The Republicans have never lost Virginia since 1964
and they absolutely need Florida to reach 270 electoral votes.
The Republicans never won the White House without
carrying Ohio, and the last time Missouri backed a losing candidate was in 1956.
Although a traditional Democrat-leaning state,
Pennsylvania is also pivotal because McCain thought he may have a chance there.
Three other states, Nevada, North Carolina and
Indiana, are also important.
The latest polls show that Obama and McCain are
leading in five and two of the eight states, respectively.
There is a tie in Missouri.
According to the estimate of RealclearPolitics.com,
if the poll numbers were the election results, Obama would easily beat McCain in
the electoral votes.
Therefore, Obama has many optional ways to win. He
can afford to lose a mid-sized solid Democratic state and still win the
election.
But for McCain, it is like walking on a tightrope and
no step can afford to go wrong.
To win the election, he must not only win most solid
Republican and Republican-leaning sates, and swing states, but also needs to
catch one or two solid Democratic states.
Chuck Todd, the top political reporter at the NBC,
said McCain may still get enough electoral votes to win, but he can't catch up
with Obama in popular vote.
But if he wants to win, he must reduce the gap in
popular vote within 5 percent.
"It would take a perfect storm. Everything has to
break his way," said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University
in Iowa, referring to McCain's chance.
