by Yang Qingchuan

    HEMPSTEAD, the United States, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- After several months of ups and downs, the most-watched U.S. presidential race in recent history is heading for its finish line.

    Once again, the final debate between U.S. presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama Wednesday night at Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y., proved to be another formality rather than a game-changer.

    But the impact on each candidate is different. For Obama, now the clear front-runner, making no big mistake is a step closer to the final win. For McCain, now in his familiar underdog role again, his lack-of-magic performance meant he missed another key chance to catch up.     

    OBAMA HAS CLEAR LEAD

    Since June, Obama led McCain in polls for most of the time, but it is until recently he has become a clear front runner. The last two weeks saw the balance tilted further toward Obama, a Democratic senator from Illinois, in all the aspects of the race.

    In national poll ratings, he now holds a comfortable 8-percentage lead over McCain, a Republican senator from Arizona. That is beyond the statistic error of polling and means a undisputable advantage.

    Another good news, perhaps more important for him, is that he is now leading McCain in all battleground states.

    Moreover, fresh poll results out Wednesday showed Obama made gains in traditional Republican states.

    A new CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation survey in Virginia indicates that Obama holds a 10 point lead over his Republican opponent McCain, 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

    President George W. Bush, a Republican, won Virginia by 9 points over Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race and the state hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964.

    "Obama is winning men and women in Virginia, and is doing well across the state east of the Blue Ridge Mountains," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

    It's a similar story in Colorado, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in the race for the White House in 16 years. The new poll indicates Obama opened a 4 point edge over McCain, 51 percent to 47 percent.

    Either candidate needs at least electoral college votes to get elected and the polls show Obama will certainly close the deal if the election was held Wednesday. Realclear Politics webstie estimated that Obama and McCain now hold 286 and 158 vote, respectively.

    Analysts pointed out that aside from the impact of financial storm that rocked the Wall Street, McCain's weak performance is partly his own making.

    Political commentator Clive Crook pointed out that although McCain entered the race as an experienced and well-known candidate, and Obama as a little-known novice, now people may find the opposite is true.

    Obama, although 25 years younger, looks unhurried and steady, focused his message on economy and tried his best to link McCain and the unpopular president Goerge W. Bush.

    Meanwhile, McCain doesn't seem to have a coherent message. He attempted to leave his own mark on the financial rescue plan, but only played into the hands of the Democrats who controlled the congress.

    He then tried to attack Obama's character but had to switch back when it backfired. Not surprisingly, he ends up with a 20-percent gap behind Obama in favorable ratings.     

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., answers a question during a presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2008. (Xinhua/AFP Photo) Photo Gallery>>>

    THE PERFECT STORM FOR DEMOCRATS

    Politically, the ongoing financial turmoil turned out to be a perfect storm for Democrats, who had a better economic performance record than Republicans in recent history.

    A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows more than three-quarters of Americans say the nation faces a serious economic crisis and most voters trust Obama to fix it. Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, which is more than double Obama's advantage from a month ago.

    With the economy dominant among voter concerns, 56 percent of respondents say they are confident Obama has a plan to deal with the financial crisis. Less people are sure that McCain can do it.

    That doesn't mean Obama's economic plan is undisputably superior than McCain's. It is rather a party legacy thing.

    Based on a research of Princeton University, during past 50 years, the U.S. economy was better under Democratic presidents than it was under Republican presidents.

    Under Democratic presidents, the middle and lower economic class got more benefits while the rich were the biggest beneficiary under Republican presidents.

    Analysts said unless McCain presents a clearly superior economic plan, which looks not very likely, he has little chance to outperform the Democrat on the economic issue. Worse for him, the economy will remain the dominating issue of the campaign, given the nation's economic situation.

     IT WON'T BE OVER UNTIL IT IS OVER

    Comparing McCain's current standing to history, he's chance to win the election now looks dim. Obama's current lead of 7 to 8 percentage in average poll rating, is very hard for McCain to overcome if previous elections were the guide.

    Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large at this point and continued to win: Ronald Reagan.

    But there is a difference. In 1980, Reagan was the candidate of an opposition party challenging an unpopular incumbent, Democrat Jimmy Carter. At present, McCain is the ruling party's candidate linked to an unpopular president.

    Larry Bartels, a political scientist at Princeton, thought Obama has a over 90 percent of chances to win the election. But others are less sure that the race is effectively over.

    Analysts like Walter Sapiro at Salon.com, argued that McCain can still win, noting that in an information age, the voter's moodis very easy to change. Then there is the "October surprise" which could shake up the whole race, like a national security incident or even a grave terrorist threat. McCain can also make a surprise move once again, like he chose little-known Sara Palin as the running mate in August.

    Finally, there is the creepy but existing issue of racism. Obama, born to a white mother and a black father, faces certain resistance because of his color.

    But the race factor is very hard to quantify and it remains a myth until the votes were counted.

    Overall, the race is not finished at the moment but the "moment of truth" is coming quickly as the election day is only 20 days away. 

US Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (L) and Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain greet the spectators after their last presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead Oct. 15, 2008.(Xinhua Photo/Zhang Yan) Photo Gallery>>>

        
McCain says he is no Bush in final debate with Obama

   HEMPSTEAD, the United States, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain shot back Wednesday as his Democratic opponent Obama tried to liken him to the current president, telling his rival "I am not President Bush."

    "If you want to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago. I'm going to give a new direction to this economy and this country," McCain said at the start of the third presidential debate at Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y. Full story