Special Report: U.S. presidential election
2008
by Yang Qingchuan
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Republican presidential nominee Sen.
John McCain points to supporters during the final session of the 2008
Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota September 4, 2008.
(Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Photo Gallery>>> |
ST. PAUL, the United States, Sept. 4 (Xinhua) -- As
the curtain falls for the Republican National Convention Thursday night, the
newly-nominated Republican presidential candidate John McCain has formally
become the person to lead the party in a fierce general election in November.
The task for him, however, is more than keeping the
White House. Moreover, he is now entrusted to try to turn the tide and redeem
his party's declining political brand. The question is, can he make it?
REBRANDING THE PARTY
From every aspect, the Republican Party is much
weaker than it was decades ago. Although it beats the Democrats seven times of
the last 10 general elections, the current picture is rather dire.
Benefiting from Ronald Reagan's success to broaden
the Republican base in the 1980s, George W. Bush came to power with a very
strong party base. However, as the party is increasingly tilted to the right in
recent years, its base has significantly shrunk. Compounded with unpopular Iraq
policy and a string of scandals, the Republican brand is losing its luster
quickly.
The drastic change is evident when Republicans lost
the control of the Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections. A Washington
Post/ABC survey earlier this year shows by 53 to 32 percent, the most Americans
trust Democrats more to deal with the nation's challenges and that is the
biggest leading margin for the Democrats in the same poll since 1993.
Therefore, it's not surprising that McCain, a
"maverick" Republican will become the best shot for his party in this election.
Although McCain voted along the party line for the most of time in Congress, he
is also considered to have "independent streaks."
He defied his party in key legislations concerning
finance reform, immigration, environmental protection and prisoner abuse. McCain
also worked with the Democrats to push through legislations in Congress. As a
result, he is now more popular than his party and can pose a serious competition
for the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
The senator from Arizona understands that under
current circumstances, there is no way other than rebranding his party.
Therefore, his acceptance speech at the Republican convention Thursday night
highlighted the themes of "reform" and "bipartisanship."
The theme for the convention--"country first" has
less partisan, so are the four sub-themes -- service, reform, prosperity and
peace. The convention added environmental protection to the new party platform,
a significant change for the party's usually conservative documents.
McCain's choice for running mate, 44-year-old Alaska governor Sarah Palin, is also known for her willingness to take on the "establishment."
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Balloons and confetti fall at the 39th Republican National Convention in St. Paul of Minnesota in the United States on Sept. 4, 2008. United States Senator John McCain on Thursday formally accepted the Republican Party's nomination as its presidential candidate in a prime-time speech. (Xinhua/Zhang Yan)
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THE BUSH LEGACY
When McCain takes over his party's helm from
President George W. Bush, he needs an acrobat's skill to deal with the outgoing
party boss. Bush's approval rating is still hovering around 30 percent and the
Democrats spare no time to remind voters that McCain is Bush's "heir."
"John McCain has voted 90 percent of the time with
George Bush," Obama said in his acceptance speech on Aug. 28 in Denver,
Colorado. "I don't know about you, but I am not ready to take a 10-percent
chance on change," he added.
The attack is very damaging for McCain and it has
apparently worked. The number of Americans who believe that McCain's policies
will be the same as Bush's has gone up, from 48 percent in April to 54 percent
at present.
Therefore, when Bush cancelled his plan to attend the
opening session of the Republican convention on Sept. 1 because of Hurricane
Gustav, there were signs of relief within the McCain camp.
The hurricane took away some media spotlight on the
convention, but also gave McCain a chance to show he is no Bush, who was blamed
for the slow response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. However, Bush is still very
popular within the party's right wing, so McCain needs him to rally the party
behind him.
McCain's choice of Palin, a very conservative
Republican, as running mate, is aimed to please the conservative base. As Ronald
Brownstein from the National Journal put it, McCain needs to keep a perfect
balance in dealing with Bush.
SAILING AGAINST WIND
In the last general election, Bush managed to win
despite the decline of Republican appeal. But analysts said McCain can't hope to
replicate his success due to a drastic change in voters' political tendency over
the past few years.
In 2004, the number of Democrats and Republicans were
virtually even. Bush achieved victory by fully energizing his own political
base. But a recent Pew Research Center survey showed the Democratic party had
established its largest advantage over the GOP in voters' partisan
identification.
Democrats now hold an average lead in party
identification of 37 to 28 percent. That margin swelled to 51 to 38 percent when
"leaning" independents were included.
In other words, Obama only needs to energize his base
to secure a victory. But McCain needs to appeal to the independents while
uniting his party.
"I don't think McCain can follow the path we did in
2004," said Terry Nelson, the field director for Bush's re-election campaign.
"To win this time, we have to run a campaign that is much more directed at the
center of the electorate and much more focused on acquiring swing voters while
still trying to get as much support from your base," he added.
A CNN analysis also found on eight major election
issues, Obama leads in six over McCain, ranging from the economy, oil prices to
Iraq. The only two issues where McCain is leading are immigration and terrorism.
Both are not the top issues for this election cycle.
Even McCain's associates acknowledged the daunting
task they face. If McCain does defeat Obama in November, he will be sailing
against very strong headwind.
"We're in the worst political environment for
Republicans since Nixon," McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis said. Senator
Lindsey Graham, a close McCain ally, said that "we are a party in retreat and we
need to regroup and change the way we do business."
The major function of a major U.S. political party's
national convention is to nominate presidential candidate and unite the party.
By picking Palin as his running mate and rebranding the party, McCain seemed to
achieve both. However, it will take a lot more than that for him to win the
election and redeem his party.
McCain accepts Republican nomination,
vows to change Washington
SAINT PAUL, the United States, Sept. 4 (Xinhua) -- Senator
John McCain on Thursday formally accepted the Republican Party's nomination for
president in a prime-time speech in which he touted himself as a reformer,
problem solver and a patriot.
"Let me offer an advance warning to the old, big
spending, do nothing, me first, country second Washington crowd: change is
coming," McCain said in the nationally-televised speech at the 39th Republican
National Convention. Full story
U.S. Republicans formally nominates
Palin as VP candidate
ST. PAUL, the United States, Sept. 4 (Xinhua) -- U.S.
Republicans formally nominated Alaksa governor Sarah Palin as the party's vice
presidential candidate Thursday at their national convention.
There is only one name on the ballot and her
nomination was unanimously approved by acclamation during the Republican
National Convention in St. Paul in the U.S. state of Minnesota. Full story
